Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 1

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

111.5K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

FALCON HUNTER (1) has put together the most convincing recent form, with seconds at Sha Tin and this track, the latest a neck defeat to Verbier when near the top of betting. He remains a maiden, but the 7lbs claim and third-up timing give him a strong chance to convert from the inside barrier. ALWAYS FLUKE (8) is the main danger if the return to 6f sparks him, having been only a length away at this venue two starts back. Coming back from 7f now and his recent trial was sound. Ho getting back aboard adds interest. RUSSET GLOW (2) comes back from C4 company and was only beaten three and a half lengths first-up, so he is better placed despite the wide draw. DASH (11) stayed on well for fourth at Sha Tin over 5f and gets a 7lbs claim, though his maiden record keeps the winning case slightly qualified.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Has finished second in both runs this campaign and went closest last start at this track, beaten a neck by Verbier while near the top of betting. The start prior he was also sound at Sha Tin, beaten a length by Cirrus Speed at long odds. Still a maiden, but the 7lbs claim and third-up fitness make him the one to beat. 1st Pick 1 Falcon Hunter Jockey: Nichola Yuen Trainer: James Cummings J: Nichola Yuen T: James Cummings	155	-	-	-	56%	4/5
Analysis Has finished second in both runs this campaign and went closest last start at this track, beaten a neck by Verbier while near the top of betting. The start prior he was also sound at Sha Tin, beaten a length by Cirrus Speed at long odds. Still a maiden, but the 7lbs claim and third-up fitness make him the one to beat.
8	Returns from a five-week freshening after finishing 12th over 7f at Sha Tin, beaten just over five lengths by Vigor Elleegant when he failed to quicken. His previous fifth at this track was much better, beaten only a length by Team Happy, and the return to 6f is a plus. Forgive the 7f flop, his prior run reads well. 2nd Pick 8 Always Fluke Jockey: Vincent Ho Trainer: W Y So J: Vincent Ho T: W Y So	86	-	-	-	6%	16/1
Analysis Returns from a five-week freshening after finishing 12th over 7f at Sha Tin, beaten just over five lengths by Vigor Elleegant when he failed to quicken. His previous fifth at this track was much better, beaten only a length by Team Happy, and the return to 6f is a plus. Forgive the 7f flop, his prior run reads well.
2	Returns from a two-month break after finishing eighth in Class 4 at Sha Tin, beaten three and a half lengths by Happy Shooter when at long odds. He had earlier run sixth in another Class 4, the same margin from Healthy Healthy after only a brief bid. The drop to Class 5 is the key improvement angle and his time figures keep him in play, though the 6f record is only modest. Recent margins are fair rather than sharp, but this is a more suitable assignment. 3rd Pick 2 Russet Glow Jockey: Matthew Chadwick Trainer: Mark Newnham J: Matthew Chadwick T: Mark Newnham	68	-	-	-	7%	14/1
Analysis Returns from a two-month break after finishing eighth in Class 4 at Sha Tin, beaten three and a half lengths by Happy Shooter when at long odds. He had earlier run sixth in another Class 4, the same margin from Healthy Healthy after only a brief bid. The drop to Class 5 is the key improvement angle and his time figures keep him in play, though the 6f record is only modest. Recent margins are fair rather than sharp, but this is a more suitable assignment.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.

Blinkers

A hood worn on a horse’s head to limit side vision, which can improve concentration. Blinkers are added or removed to relax a horse or give it more focus.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).