Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 1

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

112.1K

VIEW

Verdict

NEBRASKAN (3) is better than he showed last start. He jumped favourite at this track and trip in tougher grade, but weakened in the straight to be 3L away at the finish. He's turned in a decent trial since, and coming back in grade is a big tick. Can get back to winning ways. SKY SONG (6) hasn't been far away in recent efforts, finishing 1.8L behind most recently after looking to have every chance here last week. Back up to 6f is the query, but he maps to get every chance and if he can hold his recent form up in distance, he'll take beating. HAPPY BOYS (5) finished strongly over the 5f journey last start and was only 1.5L away at this track and trip two starts back. Purton hops in the saddle now and although he has drawn wide, he tends to get back in the run anyway. Can finish strongly over the top. EVER SMART (12) is in the mix if he can run up to his latest effort back up to 6f.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Comes off a 34 day let-up. At the latest run sat on the pace before fading 7th of 12 at this track on November 19 over 6f, 3 len behind Lakeshore Hero carrying 117lbs at $3.80. The run before that gave a sight but was run down late 3rd of 12 at this track on October 22 over 6f, 0.8 len behind King Oberon carrying 120lbs at $4. Rates highly and will be hard to stop. 1st Pick 3 Nebraskan Jockey: Brenton Avdulla Trainer: John Size J: Brenton Avdulla T: John Size	122	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Comes off a 34 day let-up. At the latest run sat on the pace before fading 7th of 12 at this track on November 19 over 6f, 3 len behind Lakeshore Hero carrying 117lbs at $3.80. The run before that gave a sight but was run down late 3rd of 12 at this track on October 22 over 6f, 0.8 len behind King Oberon carrying 120lbs at $4. Rates highly and will be hard to stop.
6	At the latest run 4th of 12 at this track on December 17 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Macanese Master with 132lbs at $5.30. The start before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 12 at this track on December 3 over 5f, 1.5 len behind Golden Friendship with 131lbs at $10. He should be in this for a long way. 2nd Pick 6 Sky Song Jockey: Lyle Hewitson Trainer: Caspar Fownes J: Lyle Hewitson T: Caspar Fownes	113	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis At the latest run 4th of 12 at this track on December 17 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Macanese Master with 132lbs at $5.30. The start before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 12 at this track on December 3 over 5f, 1.5 len behind Golden Friendship with 131lbs at $10. He should be in this for a long way.
5	Last start 5th of 12 at this track on December 3 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Golden Friendship with 134lbs at $4.70. The start before that got back early 6th of 12 at this track on November 12 over 6f, 1.5 len behind Double Bingo with 134lbs at $18. Can improve on the latest effort and is expected to be in the finish. 3rd Pick 5 Happy Boys Jockey: Zac Purton Trainer: Mark Newnham J: Zac Purton T: Mark Newnham	118	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Last start 5th of 12 at this track on December 3 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Golden Friendship with 134lbs at $4.70. The start before that got back early 6th of 12 at this track on November 12 over 6f, 1.5 len behind Double Bingo with 134lbs at $18. Can improve on the latest effort and is expected to be in the finish.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.

Turf Course

A racetrack made of grass.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.