NZ - Avondale - Race 7

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Unknown

Turf

HEAVY 8

9.7K

VIEW

Verdict

VESPHIRE (9) has found it hard to win another race, but has gone very close to doing so this season. She was a beaten favourite at this level at Trentham 18 days ago when getting a long way back in the running. She cops a tough gate here, but will have Opie Bosson in the saddle for the first time, so follow your money. MIDORI BURLY (2) has been building his form since relocating from Hong Kong, and he drops back into BM60 company for the first time. Each-way value. ANNIE OAKLEY (11) was a game fourth in her penultimate start, before a disappointing run at Pukekohe nearly 4 weeks ago. She has the ability, and she is worth another chance. GOOD SPOT (12) has gotten back too far in 3 starts since finishing third fresh at Te Aroha in early January. She tries 1m for the first time in this prep, and she has each-way claims. STILL BANGON (13) will be at her peak fitness fourth up from a spell, and she is worth including in all top 4 combos to be safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Most recently second last of 10 at Trentham on March 21 over 1m, on a slow track, 10 len behind Summit Up carrying 123lbs at $4.80. The race before that 3rd of 7 at Trentham on March 1 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind La Prima Dama carrying 122lbs at $7.40. Better placed and expected to be in the finish. 1st Pick 9 Vesphire Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Ralph Manning J: Non Runner T: Ralph Manning	191	-	-	-	20%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently second last of 10 at Trentham on March 21 over 1m, on a slow track, 10 len behind Summit Up carrying 123lbs at $4.80. The race before that 3rd of 7 at Trentham on March 1 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind La Prima Dama carrying 122lbs at $7.40. Better placed and expected to be in the finish.
2	Comes here off a 33-day let-up. At the latest run faded in the straight 8th of 11 at Te Aroha on March 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Victorious Warrior with 128lbs at $11. The start before that made some head-way from midfield, 4th of 13 at Te Aroha on February 11 over 1m, slow going 4 len behind Greenwich carrying 128lbs at $11. In the mix again. 2nd Pick 2 Midori Burly Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Todd Mitchell J: Sam Mcnab T: Todd Mitchell	110	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Comes here off a 33-day let-up. At the latest run faded in the straight 8th of 11 at Te Aroha on March 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Victorious Warrior with 128lbs at $11. The start before that made some head-way from midfield, 4th of 13 at Te Aroha on February 11 over 1m, slow going 4 len behind Greenwich carrying 128lbs at $11. In the mix again.
11	Most recently 6th of 10 at Pukekohe on March 13 over 7f, slow going 5 len behind Fleeting Glimpse with 123lbs at $4.70. The race before that 4th of 13 at Te Aroha on March 6 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Berenhard carrying 123lbs at $25.70. Worth following up. 3rd Pick 11 Annie Oakley Jockey: Joe Doyle Trainer: Denise Jeffcoat J: Joe Doyle T: Denise Jeffcoat	66	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Most recently 6th of 10 at Pukekohe on March 13 over 7f, slow going 5 len behind Fleeting Glimpse with 123lbs at $4.70. The race before that 4th of 13 at Te Aroha on March 6 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Berenhard carrying 123lbs at $25.70. Worth following up.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.