NZ - Avondale - Race 6

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 8

9.7K

VIEW

Verdict

BELLA CHICA (12) tried hard on debut when finishing a game fourth at Matamata just over a fortnight ago. The extra 1f is what she is looking for, and with Michael McNab keeping the faith, she is the one to beat in this. CALMTHEFARM (2) settled back and then crept closer before the turn before running on late for second when making his debut at Matamata 17 days ago. He will eventually want a middle distance, but second up, he will still get away with running a sharp 1m. He can go one better in this. SWEET DISPOSITION (3) ran home strongly for second over 7f on debut at Matamata. The extra 1f is the key here, and he can have the last say. FAN THE HAMMERS (1) has hit the line strongly in each of his runs to date, and was runner-up at Matamata nearly 6 weeks ago. The step up to 1m is ideal, and if the gap between runs is not too long, he can take this out. THE MAILMAN (6) ran a much better race when finishing fourth at Pukekohe nearly 4 weeks ago. He can win this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
12	At debut, 4th of 12 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Artamos with 126lbs at $5.90. Expect a bold showing. 1st Pick 12 Bella Chica Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Non Runner T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	58	-	-	-	20%	Scratched
Analysis At debut, 4th of 12 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Artamos with 126lbs at $5.90. Expect a bold showing.
2	At debut, made significant ground from the rear of the field 2nd of 11 at Matamata on March 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Frozen Fortune with 128lbs at $12.30. Will derive great benefit from that outing and looks set to break the maiden status. 2nd Pick 2 Calmthefarm Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Simon & Katrina Alexander J: Non Runner T: Simon & Katrina Alexander	115	-	-	-	16%	Scratched
Analysis At debut, made significant ground from the rear of the field 2nd of 11 at Matamata on March 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Frozen Fortune with 128lbs at $12.30. Will derive great benefit from that outing and looks set to break the maiden status.
3	At debut, 2nd of 11 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.7 len behind Typhoon Lucy carrying 128lbs at $25. Has plenty of upside and gets his chance to break through. 3rd Pick 3 Sweet Disposition Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Non Runner T: Stephen Marsh	68	-	-	-	10%	Scratched
Analysis At debut, 2nd of 11 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.7 len behind Typhoon Lucy carrying 128lbs at $25. Has plenty of upside and gets his chance to break through.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Paddock

The area where horses gather before the race to be saddled and paraded for the public.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.