NZ - Avondale - Race 6

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 10

9.8K

VIEW

Verdict

COLGATE (1) unwound with a strong finish when being beaten by a nose on debut at Tauranga just over 2 weeks ago. He may already be looking for more ground than 1m, but the long run in on this course will help him, and if close enough when they round the final bend, he can have the last say. SNEAKY CYCLONE (2) has been thereabouts in all of his 4 starts this prep, and he caught the eye late when finishing fourth at Arawa Park a fortnight ago over 7f. He is now fit enough to cope with 1m, and his first win is not far away. JUST GO BOOM (3) had a tough trip off a wide gate at Ellerslie last start, and he can make the most of a superior gate this time. A win here would be no surprise to us. QUEEN SANSA (9) had to work a touch too hard early on from a wide draw at Pukekohe 3 weeks ago, and her effort was not that bad. She has the pole position this time, and we are expecting some sharp improvement. Each way value. SEPTIMA (14) had an excuse on debut. Stick with her at odds.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Was at big odds at debut, 2nd of 13 at Tauranga on June 27 over 1m, on heavy track, nose behind Da Ace carrying 129lbs at $47.80. Expected to go on with it. 1st Pick 1 Colgate Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Shaun & Emma Clotworthy J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Shaun & Emma Clotworthy	87	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Was at big odds at debut, 2nd of 13 at Tauranga on June 27 over 1m, on heavy track, nose behind Da Ace carrying 129lbs at $47.80. Expected to go on with it.
2	Recent form sound. Most recently 4th of 14 at Arawa Park on July 1 over 7f, on rain affected going, 5 len behind Chappy carrying 129lbs at $8.10. The start before that 3rd of 10 at Te Aroha on June 21 over 7f, on heavy track, 1.4 len behind Sugar Daddy with 129lbs at $3.10. Finds a nice race this time and is expected to go very well. 2nd Pick 2 Sneaky Cyclone Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Daniel Miller J: Michael Mcnab T: Daniel Miller	83	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently 4th of 14 at Arawa Park on July 1 over 7f, on rain affected going, 5 len behind Chappy carrying 129lbs at $8.10. The start before that 3rd of 10 at Te Aroha on June 21 over 7f, on heavy track, 1.4 len behind Sugar Daddy with 129lbs at $3.10. Finds a nice race this time and is expected to go very well.
3	At the latest run 9th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 1m, slow going 4 len behind La Tienda with 129lbs at $6.60. Before that 5th of 8 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Wine Rocs with 123lbs at $24.80. Should be at his top now and is expected to be in the finish. 3rd Pick 3 Just Go Boom Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Brent Gillovic J: Samantha Collett T: Brent Gillovic	78	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis At the latest run 9th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 1m, slow going 4 len behind La Tienda with 129lbs at $6.60. Before that 5th of 8 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Wine Rocs with 123lbs at $24.80. Should be at his top now and is expected to be in the finish.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.