NZ - Avondale - Race 3

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 10

9.8K

VIEW

Verdict

CAPOTE (1) has been close up in better fields than this and he will have no fitness concerns fourth up from a break. He maps to receive the run of the race from the pole position, and he is well overdue to break through. SOMBR (2) was sent out as the favourite at Pukekohe 3 weeks ago and ran a much better race to finish second by just over a length. He can again improve, and on a heavy track, he can go one better. BATU (3) looked to peak on his run late when finishing fourth at Te Aroha, when following on from his fresh-up poly track third. He is still on the up with his fitness and should pick up his first win at short notice. JACK HIGH (4) finished fifth in his first run from his new stable a fortnight ago, and he will have a more experienced apprentice in the saddle this time. He is open to sharp improvement, so don't risk him. HIT THE GAS (5) can only improve on his fresh-up effort at Arawa Park, so include in all top 4 combos to be safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Dual acceptor. Racing well recently. Most recently 4th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Kusuda Rush carrying 129lbs at $4.20. The start before that 3rd of 11 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 6f, slow going long-neck behind Manolete carrying 129lbs at $13.30. Should be nice and fit fourth up and can get the win here. 1st Pick 1 Capote Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Brent Gillovic J: Samantha Collett T: Brent Gillovic	182	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Dual acceptor. Racing well recently. Most recently 4th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Kusuda Rush carrying 129lbs at $4.20. The start before that 3rd of 11 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 6f, slow going long-neck behind Manolete carrying 129lbs at $13.30. Should be nice and fit fourth up and can get the win here.
2	Most recently 2nd of 11 at Pukekohe on June 24 over 6f, in the wet, 1.5 len behind Elite Choice with 127lbs at $3.80. The start before that 7th of 11 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 6f, slow going 4.5 len behind Manolete with 129lbs at $16.30. Heading the right way and gets his chance to get off the mark. 2nd Pick 2 Sombr Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Lauren Brennan J: George Rooke T: Lauren Brennan	88	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Most recently 2nd of 11 at Pukekohe on June 24 over 6f, in the wet, 1.5 len behind Elite Choice with 127lbs at $3.80. The start before that 7th of 11 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 6f, slow going 4.5 len behind Manolete with 129lbs at $16.30. Heading the right way and gets his chance to get off the mark.
3	Third-up today. First-up 3rd of 7 at Cambridge Synthetic on June 3 over 4f, 5 len behind Estilo carrying 129lbs at $7.50. Second run from a spell sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 9 at Te Aroha on June 21 over 5 ¾f, on rain affected going, 5 len behind Winner Patch carrying 129lbs at $23.10. Should be cherry ripe third-up and looks very hard to beat. 3rd Pick 3 Batu Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Tayla Sherwood J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Tayla Sherwood	84	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 3rd of 7 at Cambridge Synthetic on June 3 over 4f, 5 len behind Estilo carrying 129lbs at $7.50. Second run from a spell sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 9 at Te Aroha on June 21 over 5 ¾f, on rain affected going, 5 len behind Winner Patch carrying 129lbs at $23.10. Should be cherry ripe third-up and looks very hard to beat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Paddock

The area where horses gather before the race to be saddled and paraded for the public.

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.