Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Monday, August 31

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jackson Merrill (+300)
• Christian Walker (+420)
• Bryce Harper (+500)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Merrill (+300)

Padres at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Jackson Merrill gets a huge park-factor bump today in Cincy, and I’m intrigued by his matchup with Brady Singer.

Singer has given up at least three earned runs in seven consecutive outings, and he’s surrendered a .376 wOBA and 2.00 jacks per nine to left-handed hitters this season.

Merrill’s career has been trending downward since his breakout rookie campaign. However, he’s still launched 22 dingers this year and owns a 41.5% fly-ball rate. Of his 22 tanks, 14 have come on the road and 18 have come with the platoon advantage — two boxes that are checked today.

To make things even better, once Singer is out of the game, Merrill will see a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that is dead last in xFIP this campaign (4.84).

Home Run Prediction: Christian Walker (+420)

White Sox at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Christian Walker is at home versus lefty Anthony Kay.

Kay’s results have been decent enough, but his season-long SIERA is a meh 4.46 with a lowly 18.4% strikeout rate. Righty bats have a huge .373 wOBA against him and have racked up 1.55 homers per nine.

Walker has hit 24 long-balls and is at his best with the platoon advantage, mashing his way to a .352 wOBA and 46.2% fly-ball rate against southpaws.

After Kay, Walker will take his hacks against a Chicago White Sox bullpen that is 10th-worst in reliever xFIP this year.

Home Run Prediction: Bryce Harper (+500)

Phillies at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

You can make a dinger case for Bryce Harper on most days when he’s facing a right-hander. That’s especially true when said RHP is a low-strikeout guy, which is the case tonight.

Brandon Pfaadt is taking the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pfaadt has a meager 16.7% K rate on the year, and while his 3.51 ERA looks great, Pfaadt’s xFIP is 4.33. Left-handed hitters have tagged him for 1.72 homers per nine.

Harper is hammering righties to the tune of a .436 wOBA and 45.5% hard-hit rate. Overall in the second half, Harper has a .413 wOBA, and he’s red-hot right now, posting a .514 wOBA with two bombs over his previous 35 plate appearances.

At long +500 odds, Harper is pretty easy to like tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.