Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 6/10/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Royce Lewis To Hit a Home Run (+450)

The Minnesota Twins come in with a slate-high 4.70 implied run total against the Colorado Rockies in what could be a higher-scoring game.

The Rockies will send Dakota Hudson to the mound tonight, a pitcher we absolutely don't need to be worried about and should target for some homers.

We'll turn to Royce Lewis, who recently returned from an injury and has played only six games this season. So, we'll look back to last year when he posted a 164 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .283 ISO, 41.5% fly-ball rate, 32.5% hard-contact rate, and 27.5% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.

This led to Lewis hitting 14 of his 15 home runs against righties, making this the clear split to target.

As for Hudson, he has allowed a 4.65 xFIP, .323 SLG, 0.53 HR/9, 36.0% hard-contact rate, and 7.7% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters. If we look at league average numbers versus righties, they sit at a 30.7% hard-contact rate, 10.6% HR/FB ratio, and 1.03 HR/9.

Hudson allows more hard contact in this split but is allowing fewer home runs, which isn't sustainable. He should be in for some negative regression and a good hitter such as Lewis can get that rolling.

I'll add Lewis To Record an RBI (+120), too.

Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+350)

Let's turn to the Kansas City Royals, who have plenty of power in their lineup.

They should be able to put that on display against Carlos Rodon, who struggles versus righty power hitters. This year, Rodon has allowed a .417 SLG, 4.43 xFIP, 1.48 HR/9, 51.7% fly-ball rate, and 11.2% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

That is why we've seen 10 of the 11 home runs he's allowed come via righty hitters.

This brings me to Salvador Perez, who is rocking a 136 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .173 ISO, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and 38.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. It's a near-perfect hitting profile of what I look for in a hitter, putting Perez in an elite spot.

I'll add Perez To Record an RBI (+125), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.