Tennis

French Open Quarterfinals Betting Picks: Tuesday 6/4/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
French Open Quarterfinals Betting Picks: Tuesday 6/4/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which quarterfinal matches could have the most betting value on Tuesday.

French Open Best Bets

Coco Gauff vs. Ons Jabeur

Jabeur ML (+340)

Coco Gauff has been rolling in this tournament, so chances are she emerges victorious against Ons Jabeur -- yet the value we're getting on the underdog is nonetheless intriguing.

Jabeur entered this tournament with a losing overall record for the year (6-9), and outside of a run to the quarterfinals in Madrid, there was little about her clay performance (4-4) to suggest she was poised to make much noise in Paris.

But here she is in the French Open quarterfinals for the second year in a row, and perhaps she's finally breaking out of her season-long funk. We know the three-time Grand Slam finalist is a far better player than she's shown for most of 2024, and while she's faced some adversity through the first four rounds, she's emerged having dropped just one set.

Even amidst her struggles this season, her surface-blended Elo rating on Tennis Abstract still ranks 10th on clay, a reminder of how dangerous Jabeur can be when she's on her game.

Of course, Gauff hasn't dropped a single set yet, which is why she comes into this match as such a heavy favorite (-465). This is the fourth year in a row she's made the Roland-Garros quarterfinals, and she was a finalist here in 2022. Gauff also leads the head-to-head against Jabeur 4-2.

That being said, Jabeur does hold a 2-1 edge on clay, and according to Tennis Abstract, both players have nearly identical career win percentages on clay (roughly 71%). This suggests that if Jabeur maintains her high level, this could be closer than the odds are indicating.

Massey Ratings' model reflects this, as well, projecting a 42.0% win probability for Jabeur, which is substantially better than her implied odds as a +340 'dog (22.7%). While Opta Analyst's forecast isn't quite as bullish, it's also giving Jabeur a far better shot at 33.8%.

Iga Swiatek vs. Marketa Vondrousova

Swiatek -6.5 Games (-112)

Since a scare against former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the second round, Iga Swiatek has looked inevitable again at her favorite stomping grounds, most recently destroying Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0 in just 40 minutes.

Swiatek is now 18-1 on clay this season, and her last loss was back in April against Elena Rybakina, the rare player who owns a winning record against her. Since that loss, she's been pushed to three sets just 3 times over a 16-match win streak. Swiatek's French Open win streak is up to 18 matches dating back to 2022, too.

On the other hand, Marketa Vondrousova didn't come into this event in the best of form, owning a modest 11-8 record this season and going just 3-4 in her last seven clay matches. In her run to the quarterfinals, she's benefited from a generous draw, as her four opponents have been ranked between 94th and 136th.

Like most players, Vondrousova hasn't had much success facing Swiatek, either, going 0-3 and failing to win a set even once. They faced each other at the 2020 French Open, and Iga steamrolled Marketa 6-1, 6-2.

Massey Ratings sees Swiatek winning 91% of the time, and as a -1400 favorite, her implied win probability is 93.3%. Even with this hefty spread, we have to like her chances of covering in another dominant victory.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.