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FedEx St. Jude Championship Win Simulations: Can Scottie Scheffler Finally Get Another Win?
The FedExCup Playoffs start this week, and it's imperative for golfers to be inside the top 50 of the FedExCup Standings by the end of the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
For now, though, we are focusing on this week's event -- and who might win.
To help with that, here is what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's PGA Tour event.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Win Simulations
Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top-10% | Top-20% | Made Cut% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $12,300 | 12.66% | 56.46% | 65.99% | 100.00% |
| Jon Rahm | $12,100 | 9.55% | 50.95% | 56.69% | 100.00% |
| Rory McIlroy | $12,000 | 8.13% | 46.86% | 56.85% | 100.00% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,800 | 5.02% | 35.76% | 47.13% | 100.00% |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,600 | 4.46% | 35.68% | 45.45% | 100.00% |
| Viktor Hovland | $11,400 | 4.03% | 30.86% | 40.88% | 100.00% |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,000 | 3.52% | 29.98% | 38.42% | 100.00% |
Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler is the model's favorite, and he's also the betting favorite with +600 odds to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Scheffler, prior to a T23 at The Open Championship, had finished top-11 in 10 consecutive events with no wins. His tee-to-green game is unmatched right now. He just needs to putt well. At a ball-striker's course, Scheffler is hard to nitpick.
The model prefers Jon Rahm over Rory McIlroy (even with recent rounds receiving more weight), which remains noteworthy to me.
In all, there aren't many surprises, which is to be expected when you have such a strong field. There aren't many pretenders at the top of the board, and that means a few guys soak up a lot of the win equity.
As a result, the model isn't finding much direct value early in the week.
Some names I'll be tracking throughout the week include Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley again, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, and Keegan Bradley.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
