Fantasy Football: 6 Sleepers for Week 1

9mo

The word "sleeper" gets thrown around a lot in the world of fantasy football, to the point where an actual definition may vary from person to person. In general, sleepers are NFL players that may be flying relatively under the radar in a particular field. That could be an under-rostered player in season-long leagues, a player with an exciting matchup in a given week, or even a potential star just ahead of their true breakout.

In any case, we all need to find a sleeper from time to time. Whether you're a fantasy football hipster looking to roster an exciting new player before your league-mates hear about him, a daily fantasy manager looking for a lower-salary player to fill out a lineup loaded with studs, or even just a manager in a pinch due to byes or injuries, we have you covered. We'll be bringing you six fantasy sleepers each and every week throughout the season.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Sleepers

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: $6,400

New Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has some serious shoes to fill, becoming just the team's third starting quarterback to open a season in over 30 years. With predecessors like Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre, Packers fans may have some lofty expectations for Love in his first real season as a starter.

Fortunately for Love, he should get to ease into the starting job this year with a soft matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears allowed an average of 27.2 points per game to opposing offenses last year. They also allowed the most total points on the season and the second-most yards per play (6.1). Their pass defense was especially vulnerable; the Bears allowed opposing passers to throw for a league-best 7.4 net yards per attempt. That 7.4 mark is regrettably close to Patrick Mahomes' personal mark of 7.5, which is frankly just not where you want your defense to be. To make matters worse, they didn't really make any massive changes to their defense, either, apart from swapping out All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith for free agent Tremaine Edmunds.

The Packers might also have a sneaky-good set of skill-position players to back Love up, too. Christian Watson proved to be the kind of playmaker that can create touchdowns out of nowhere while fellow second-year pro Romeo Doubs and 2023 second-round pick Jayden Reed could form the backbone of the team's wide receiver group for years to come. With veteran pass-catching running back Aaron Jones back for the season, Love won't need to do it all by himself to take home a win in his team's season opener.

Love went undrafted in most single-quarterback fantasy leagues for the 2023 season, so it's clear that fantasy managers aren't getting too excited for the former first-round pick yet. With soft upcoming matchups against the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions, and Las Vegas Raiders, Love could go on a heater in fantasy football to open the season.

D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears

FanDuel Salaries: $5,800 and $4,200

So I know we just dunked on the Chicago Bears in the previous section, but their running backs might actually be in a pretty interesting situation for fantasy football. The problem -- and the reason both D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson are available in so many fantasy leagues ahead of Week 1 -- is that the Bears seem to like the idea of a running back by committee approach this season with Khalil Herbert leading the way.

That's fine. Herbert was actually great for the Bears last year even while he played behind David Montgomery. According to the NFL's Next Gen Stats page, Herbert generated the most rushing yards over expectation per rush attempt (RYOE/A) in the league with his outstanding 1.29 RYOE/A mark and generated those yards over expectation at the fourth-most consistent rate (46.9%). We can't fault the Bears for wanting him on the field.

However, liking Herbert doesn't mean the Bears will have to keep Foreman or Johnson off the field. Foreman was no slouch with regards to those metrics himself, earning positive yards over expectation at a league-best 47.5% clip and averaging an extra 0.61 RYOE/A (ninth-best). While Johnson doesn't have a track record in the league yet, he earned rave reviews from the Bears' coaching staff and beat reporters this offseason. The Bears might have one of the stronger running back rooms in the league this year.

What both Foreman and Johnson have, that Herbert doesn't quite, is size. Both Foreman (236 lbs) and Johnson (222 lbs) have some solid weight over Herbert (212 lbs), meaning they could be in line for heavier workloads near the goal line -- the most fantasy-friendly part of the field.

The Bears worked their way into a split backfield last year with Montgomery and Herbert taking reps and could find themselves in a similar situation this year. With both Foreman and Johnson available on most waiver wires, it's perfectly reasonable to take a shot on either one ahead of Week 1. Don't be surprised to see either one of them punching in a touchdown against the Packers on Sunday.

Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $4,200

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker entered the league as a priority undrafted free agent, but has already earned the team's RB2 job after a strong camp performance. The former Syracuse Orange back is now set to open the season behind second-year teammate Rachaad White, the team's presumed starter, but what if the Bucs end up using more of a committee than we are expecting?

The Bucs split touches pretty much down the middle between Leonard Fournette and White by the end of last season, so it wouldn't be too surprising if their "RB2" actually gets more than just a change-of-pace amount of touches in Week 1. With Baker Mayfield under center, they'll probably want to make heavy use of the run game in their offense this season. That means Tucker could already be in position for more touches than most might assume.

What we haven't quite considered, however, is the potential for Tucker to usurp White on the Bucs' depth chart. Tucker left the college ranks with an impressive resume. Over three seasons, he rushed the ball 589 times for 3,182 yards and 27 rushing touchdowns at an efficient 5.4-yards-per-carry clip. He was a real contributor in the passing game as well, catching 64 balls for 616 more yards and 4 additional touchdowns at Syracuse. He ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day while weighing in at 207 pounds, giving him the kind of size and speed combination that can sometimes lead to fantasy gold -- especially with his history of efficient play and pass-catching talents.

We also need to consider that White wasn't particularly impressive in his rookie year -- though, to be fair, not many 2022 Bucs had their best seasons either. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per reception and lost 3 fumble while Fournette compiled a 3.5 ypc average and 7.2 yards per reception. On one hand, we could look at those stats and say that the Buccaneers' offense just stifled any opportunities for efficient production. On the other hand, it's worth noting that White couldn't quite outplay a 27-year-old Leonard Fournette, who still has not been able to sign with an NFL team as Week 1 approaches.

The Bucs' offense isn't likely to be a high-powered one this year -- especially downgrading from Tom Brady to Mayfield -- but Tucker has the kind of big-play ability that can churn out fantasy points even in suboptimal situations. He could earn a surprising workload as early as the first game of the season.

Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos

FanDuel Salary: $4,700

If Oklahoma Sooners alum Marvin Mims wasn't on your radar after the Denver Broncos traded up to take him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, he absolutely needs to be on your radar now. After offseason injuries to both Tim Patrick (Achilles) and Jerry Jeudy (hamstring), Mims is now in line to be a starting receiver for the Broncos in their Week 1 tilt with the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Broncos' 2022 season fell off the rails immediately in their season-opener, but new head coach Sean Payton appears to be righting the ship for the 2023 campaign -- which means we should hopefully see starting quarterback Russell Wilson play like he did with the Seattle Seahawks. That means more patented "moon balls" from Russ, which should line up perfectly with Mims' skillset.

Mims was a menace as a downfield threat at the college level, averaging over 20 yards per reception in each of his final two seasons. His 602 yards on targets that traveled at least 20 yards down the field last year ranked third in all of college football while his 2.75 yards per route run came in just behind first-round pick Jordan Addison's strong 2.78 YPRR mark. Mims was a baller in college football and is now set to hit the ground running in the NFL.

It helps, then, that his first opponent in the big league will be the Raiders, whose defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 6.7 net yards per attempt a season ago -- the fifth-highest rate in the league. The Raiders are set to begin the season with a 30-year-old Marcus Peters, former fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs, and 2023 fourth-round pick Jakorian Bennett as their starting cornerbacks this season, so if Mims' skills can translate to the NFL level, he could pop off for a surprisingly strong fantasy outing in Week 1.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns

FanDuel Salary: $5,900

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones kind of balled out last year, but it feels like people barely even noticed. To be fair, the Browns weren't very good, but there's hope they can turn things around in 2023.

The former sixth-round pick has steadily improved with each passing year, developing into a starting-caliber receiver for the team last season. While playing across from Amari Cooper in the team's run-first offense, Peoples-Jones still put up 61 catches on 96 targets for 839 yards and 3 scores in 2023. He had been averaging 53.9 receiving yards per game with Jacoby Brissett under center with a stretch of 7-straight 50-plus yard performances too, but his numbers suffered over the final 6 games of the season with Deshaun Watson under center.

While his numbers did fall off once Watson took over, it wasn't all bad for DPJ in those six games. He actually set his season-high single-game receiving yards mark with 114 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. He had another strong performance against those same Bengals earlier in the year, as well, catching all four of his targets in that contest for 81 yards. In Week 1 this year, he'll play against those same Bengals -- and now has a full offseason of reps with his starting quarterback.

The Bengals' defense lost both of their starting safeties from last season to free agency -- as well as defensive back Eli Apple -- meaning their defensive backfield could actually be a weak point on their opening day roster. Peoples-Jones was already able to attack Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's scheme for almost 200 yards in two games last year and could tee off against a weaker form of that same defense in Week 1.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots

FanDuel Salary: $5,100

Most New England Patriots fans are ready to throw the 2022 season out of the window. The team's offense did about as well as you could expect an offense coordinated by a bad defensive coordinator to perform -- quite poorly. But now, the Pats have replaced Matt Patricia with Bill O'Brien and could find themselves with a far more acceptable offense in 2023.

The team's biggest issue last year was their red-zone offense. The Patriots converted just 42.2% of their red zone appearances into touchdowns -- the lowest rate in the entire league. Their struggles on condensed fields led to them attempting the fifth-most field goals of any team in the NFL. Even just a little bit of regression towards a league-average red zone conversion rate could put more touchdown opportunities in play for their offensive skill position players.

Tight end Hunter Henry could be the biggest beneficiary of an improved offense for just that reason. The former Los Angeles Chargers tight end has been a red zone weapon throughout his career -- even notching nine touchdown grabs for the Patriots in 2021 -- but caught a career-low two touchdowns in 2022. He still led that team in red zone targets (seven) but just wasn't able to convert any of them into scores. By comparison, he caught 8 of his team-high 18 red zone targets for 8 touchdowns in 2021, showing just how strong of a priority he can be for the team in that area of the field.

If you don't have one of the top tight ends on your roster or are already scrambling to find a replacement for Travis Kelce (knee), you're pretty much just looking for a tight end with a chance of scoring a touchdown. Henry is coming off a down year, but he seems poised to be the Patriots' top pass-catcher in the red zone for the third-straight season. He and the Pats will draw a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, but we can at least feel relatively confident that if the Patriots make it near the end zone, they'll be looking Henry's way.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.