FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 7/17/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

Top Options

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners ($9,900)

Seattle Mariners righty Logan Gilbert checks in as a top pitching option in DFS today thanks to a solid matchup and strong underlying numbers. Gilbert's Mariners host the Minnesota Twins at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Minnesota boasts a solid offense that ranks seventh with 110 weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties, solidly above the league average of 100. Consequently, they won't fold over at the sight of Gilbert. But Minnesota's appeal lies in their strikeout potential.

Not only do the Twins have the highest total strikeout rate in the majors (26.8%), but their active roster's 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers leads the majors by a wide margin. That bodes well for Gilbert who sits in the 61st percentile league-wide with a 24.8% strikeout rate.

Gilbert had an up-and-down June but has been nearly untouchable in July. Through two starts, he's allowed just a single run and struck out 13 through 16 innings of work. Fantasy-wise, he's eclipsed 45 FanDuel points in both of those starts and has hit 40 in three of his last four.

numberFire projects Gilbert for 34.2 points tonight -- the highest projection of the slate. Considering the Twins have the lowest non-A's implied team total of the night, Gilbert has a lovely combination of a high floor and massive ceiling.

That makes Logan Gilbert one of the top pitching options in DFS tonight.

Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins ($9,600)

It looks like a pitcher's duel in Seattle as we're staying in that same Mariners-Twins matchup for our other top option -- Minnesota righty Sonny Gray.

Gray has cooled off some after giving up just three runs over his first six starts back in April. Still, he's proven to be one of the most consistent starts in the league, allowing more than three runs just once in 18 starts.

A 4.15 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 9.3% walk rate aren't great, but it's worth nothing Gray's ERA has outperformed his SIERA in three of the past four seasons.

Sonny is coming off his worst start of the year, which likely explains a reduced salary. Although he gave up six runs in six innings against the Orioles, he still struck out five and gets a much easier matchup this time out.

This Mariners lineup isn't well-equipped to deal with righties, ranking 20th with a .311 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in the split.

However, their biggest draw from a fantasy perspective is their strikeout tendencies. Seattle's current lineup boasts a 25.4% strikeout rate against righties, the third-highest strikeout rate in the split.

numberFire projects Gray for 33.1 FanDuel points tonight -- the second-best projection of the slate.

Considering the three Detroit Tigers' starters last series racked up an average of 37.3 FanDuel points per game against Seattle, Gray is a top pitching option tonight.

Value Plays

Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers ($8,500)

Detroit Tigers' righty Matt Manning looks like a top value play tonight given his recent upward trend and soft matchup. Manning most recently started Detroit's combined no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays -- walking three and striking out five in 6.2 innings of work.

Tonight, he gets the lowly Kansas City Royals -- a team that owns some dreadful numbers against righties. Kansas City ranks in the bottom five in strikeout rate (25.5%), slugging (.376), and wOBA (.292) in the split.

Manning is in a perfect position to take advantage of KC's struggles. He's looked sharp since coming off the IL at the end of June. Despite having to face the Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, and make a trip to Coors' Field, Manning has allowed just six earned runs and eight hits over 17.1 innings in that span.

Manning's numbers won't wow you -- he has a 5.27 SIERA and a measly 16.9% strikeout rate. However, he just no-hit the Blue Jays and is facing arguably the worst offense in baseball.

numberFire projects Manning for 25.3 FanDuel points tonight.

If you're looking for a safe pitching option who won't tank your salary cap, Manning is your guy.

Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs ($8,000)

No pitcher has more value relative to his FanDuel salary tonight than Drew Smyly -- at least, according to numberFire. With 30.4 projected FanDuel points and just a $8,000 salary tag, he's a top point-per-dollar value by numberFire's projections.

Smyly is another guy who has cooled off after a hot start. He had sub-3.25 ERAs in both April and May but has since allowed fewer than three runs in a start just twice.

The underlying numbers haven't been great, either. His 4.83 SIERA and 19.5% strikeout rate are by far the worst marks of his career. An 8.4% walk rate isn't doing him any favors, either.

What Smyly excels at is limiting hard contact. Smyly sits in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate. That bodes well for him tonight considering his matchup with the Washington Nationals.

The Nationals have been better than you'd expect versus lefties, but they still aren't hitting the ball hard. Their 29.8% hard-hit rate against lefties ranks just 19th, and much of their success can be attributed to an above-average .323 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the split.

It's not a slam-dunk matchup, but Washington doesn't exactly scare me -- especially after Smyly racked up 34 FanDuel points against them in May. On a smaller slate, Smyly is among the top value plays for those looking to save salary at pitcher.

Honorable Mentions

To address the elephant in the room, none of the three highest-salaried arms were discussed as advisable plays tonight entirely because of their matchups. Logan Webb ($10,500) has to face the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, Jesus Luzardo ($10,300) makes a trip to the St. Louis Cardinals, and Shane McClanahan ($10,000) comes off IL to visit the Texas Rangers.

All of those guys could return stellar nights, just as they have for most of the year. Luzardo is the one I'd trust the most, but given the matchups, I'm more inclined to turn to some of the lower-salaried arms and not risk the majority of my salary.

It's a somewhat light slate of games with just 20 of the league's teams in action. With that said, if you're really looking to swing for the fence and be contrarian, Grayson Rodriguez ($7,700) has slate-winning potential despite a rough matchup.

Rodriguez is making his first MLB start since being sent down at the end of May. The top prospect struggled with consistency in his first taste of the bigs, but he showed the ability to rack up strikeouts in bunches. A matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers is far from ideal, but he posted a 1.96 ERA and struck out 56 in 41.1 Triple-A innings after being sent down. He's a hail mary tonight, but Rodriguez is someone to keep an eye on going forward.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.