MLB

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Monday 7/8/24

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Monday 7/8/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Tonight's pitching slate is Chris Sale ($11,500), followed by a massive, cavernous gap and then everybody else. (UPDATE: Sale's start has since been pushed back to tomorrow. Bryce Elder will start in his place.)

Sale tops numberFire's pitching projections by nearly seven FanDuel points, and the gap in upside between him and the pack is even larger. It's not just strikeouts bolstering Sale, either; he has let up a minuscule 30.3% hard-hit rate in 11 starts with more changeups in the mix.

Thus, if you're not using Sale, it's effectively a bet that he has a poor start. Pivoting from the chalk in DFS is always viable, but on this slate, it's tough to find great alternatives at pitcher.

You could make a case the best alternative is Sale's opponent, Yilber Diaz ($6,500). Diaz tore through both Double-A and Triple-A, and they've let him go 96 pitches in a start in the minors already. If you're not using Sale, you might as well load up at hitter, and Diaz's nearly minimum salary would give you that boost.

Stacks to Target

As you could guess, if pitching is thin, stacking should be easier. That is very much the case tonight, and you've got routes where you can pivot, as well.

The Minnesota Twins check in with the highest implied total on the slate, followed by the Cincinnati Reds. You can absolutely go at either offense, especially with temperatures elevated in both games.

However, you can also look elsewhere. The Twins are facing Chris Flexen, who has let up just a 32.9% hard-hit rate in 13 starts with more cutters in his arsenal. As for the Reds, they get Ryan Feltner, whose ground-ball rate has increased since he started throwing more sinkers 11 starts ago. Flexen and Feltner have ERAs of 4.68 and 5.86, respectively, in those samples, so you can understand why betting markets are high on the opposing hitters. Those stacks just aren't bulletproof in case you need to differentiate while using Sale at pitcher.

Instead, I think we can give the Cleveland Guardians a long look. They're facing Keider Montero, who has struggled both in Triple-A and the majors this year.

You may not be able to get to Jose Ramirez ($4,300) or Steven Kwan ($3,900) in your Sale lineups, but Daniel Schneemann is a quality value play at just $2,900. Schneemann has a 47.6% hard-hit rate the past 30 days and adds some stolen-base juice to boot.

The other two alternatives to the Twins and Reds are the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers.

The Braves are facing Diaz, who I do think is interesting at pitcher due to his salary. But he also didn't generate many grounders in the minors. It's a volatile projection on a guy making his debut, so if you're not using Diaz at pitcher, I like the idea of stacking against him. Jarred Kelenic is still under-salaried at $3,100 and a key piece of a Braves stack.

The Rangers get Davis Daniel, who has looked good in his two big-league starts, but his minor-league track record is more mediocre. I'd turn to Wyatt Langford ($2,900) as a core play here as he is finally living up to the hype, holding a .213 ISO with 6 steals across the past 30 days.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.