FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Thursday Night (Chargers at Raiders)

Similar to last Thursday's game, expectations aren't high entering this Los Angeles Chargers-Las Vegas Raiders matchup. With Justin Herbert ruled out for the season, we're essentially getting another battle of backup QBs, and this game's 34.5-point total is the week's lowest mark, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Raiders are 3.0-point home favorites.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Given the low over/under, player projections are predictably down across the board in numberFire's model. No player is projected for even 14 FanDuel points.

Beginning with the Chargers, Austin Ekeler ($14,000), Keenan Allen ($15,000), and Herbert-replacement Easton Stick ($13,000) are the three players projected for double-digit points.

Since Ekeler returned in Week 6, he's averaged 13.3 carries and 5.4 targets per game while logging 69.0% of the snaps. He's also taken the vast majority of red zone rushes (67.7%). While he hasn't been the dominant fantasy force of years past -- averaging just 75.2 scrimmage yards per game over this span -- he's still getting his fair share of opportunities. The Raiders have given up the sixth-most FanDuel points to running backs, and it wouldn't be the least bit shocking to see Ekeler play an even bigger role with Herbert out.

(Update: Keenan Allen has been ruled out. This bumps up the target projections for Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Gerald Everett. Jalen Guyton ($7,000) and Alex Erickson ($5,500) are possible dart throws.)

As of this writing, Allen hasn't practiced yet this week, so keep an eye on his status for Thursday. But he logged a 95.5% snap rate in Week 14, and we've seen him play through various injuries of late, so we should tentatively expect him to be active. This year's overall WR3 in FanDuel points per game, Allen has dominated the receiving work with a 32.1% target share and 38.3% air yards share. While Stick is an obvious downgrade to his outlook, there's little reason to think this usage won't continue at least.

And speaking of Stick, last week was just his second-ever NFL appearance, and at 28 years old, that's saying something. Expectations need to be tempered, but he could have some dual-threat ability to boost his fantasy potential. In four years at North Dakota State, he averaged 45.9 rushing yards per game and scored a whopping 41 rushing touchdowns. He didn't run at all last week, so it remains to be seen if this will be a part of his game moving forward -- but it's something we can latch onto.

On the other side, Aidan O'Connell ($13,000) and Davante Adams ($12,500) are the two Las Vegas options projected for double-digit points. Josh Jacobs ($14,500) has a partial projection due to his uncertain playing status (quad injury), but he would almost certainly jump up near the top in numberFire's model if active.

Despite a rough 3-0 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week, it sounds like O'Connell will remain the starter this week, but he's on a short leash. While he's technically the game's highest-projected player, a mid-game benching can't be ruled out. Over his six starts, O'Connell has scored 10.8, 8.4, 9.4, 12.1, 13.9, and 6.0 FanDuel points. That would normally make him easy to exclude at MVP, yet we saw previously-left-for-dead Bailey Zappe throw three touchdowns in a similar game environment last Thursday, so you never know. The Chargers are 24th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics.

In a struggling offense, Adams' box score results haven't been amazing, but the role is still elite. Since O'Connell took over as the starter, Adams has seen a 33.8% target share, 51.6% air yards share, and 36.4% red zone share. Los Angeles has coughed up the fourth-most FanDuel points to wide receivers, so the matchup checks out.

Jacobs hasn't been practicing, and he sounds particularly iffy after being forced out of last week's game with a leg injury. He's someone to circle back to when his injury status is announced. Prior to Week 14, Jacobs was averaging a robust 21.8 carries and 2.3 targets across the last four games while dominating red zone rushes (90.9%). Scoring over 20 FanDuel points twice over that span, he would be an easy click at MVP if active.

Flex Breakdown

If Jacobs is unable to play, Zamir White ($10,000) would likely be the primary beneficiary as the Raiders' early-down back. White has 20 carries and 6 targets total over the entire season, so we shouldn't expect him to be a one-for-one replacement for Jacobs, particularly with Ameer Abdullah ($7,500) being an option on passing downs. But if he soaks up a good chunk of Jacobs' 20-plus touches, that's incredibly valuable at this salary. In this scenario, he has fringe MVP appeal in case touchdown luck is on his side.

Like White, Abdullah has been a bit player all year, too, so he's still a risky play if Jacobs is out. He's ranged between 1-3 targets in all but one game this season and would presumably see a slight bump from that sans Jacobs.

The Raiders' lackluster passing game hasn't left much meat on the bone for Jakobi Meyers ($11,000), Michael Mayer ($7,500), and Hunter Renfrow ($8,000).

Since O'Connell took over, Meyers has the second-best target share (16.9%), but a middling air yards share (16.8%) has mostly left him in touchdown-or-bust territory. Mayer and Renfrow have an identical 12.2% target share over this stretch and are pretty much in the same boat. For what it's worth, Mayer has been playing more snaps (86.6% to 41.2%) and running more routes (64.5% to 48.5%) than Renfrow, though.

On the Chargers' side, Josh Palmer ($5,000) is expected to play after being activated from the injured list but reportedly won't have a full workload. Even on a limited snap count, we have to be intrigued by a viable receiver at minimum salary. In his three fully healthy games as the No. 2 wideout, Palmer earned a 24.4% target share and 35.8% air yards share.

Between Herbert's injury and Palmer's return, predicting how the targets will shake out between Palmer, Quentin Johnston ($10,000), and Gerald Everett ($8,500) is tricky. Palmer projects the best of the trio, but that likely assumes a near-full workload.

In five healthy games with Palmer out, Johnston has jumped to just a 13.3% target share, making him hard to get excited about at his salary. Still, he ran 97.9% of the routes last week, so he should still be on the field plenty with Palmer back.

Everett has a 14.4% target share, 64.9% snap rate, and 60.6% route rate over the last three games. He seems like the much safer bet over fellow tight end Donald Parham Jr. ($6,500) these days.

Despite reports suggesting more playing time for running backs Joshua Kelley ($7,000) and Isaiah Spiller ($6,500), that didn't materialize into anything significant in Week 14. Maybe one or both get the "hot hand" treatment if Ekeler plays poorly, but that's nothing more than taking a leap of faith.

The likelihood of a low-scoring contest means this is exactly the environment where kickers and defenses could excel, and all four options are below $10,000. The Chargers D/ST ($8,500) generated seven sacks, two fumble recoveries, and a pick in O'Connell's spot start in Week 4. The Raiders D/ST ($9,000) is coming off one of its best performances after holding the Vikings to just three points.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.