NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 3/6/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 3/6/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Wednesday's main slate on FanDuel features eight games but some dramatically different game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map. Lines and totals via the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

De'Aaron Fox ($9,600) -- Tonight's Kings-Lakers matchup has the highest over/under (239) and tightest spread (Lakers -2.5), so we can confidently turn to De'Aaron Fox as the top guard. Fox missed two games and then returned to put up just 34.2 FanDuel points (FPs), but he still went for 20 actual points and 10 assists. With another few days of rest, Fox lines up well against a Lakers defense that's given up the eighth-most FPPG to PGs over the last 15 games, per FantasyPros.

Darius Garland ($7,800) -- Donovan Mitchell is out, and Evan Mobley left last night's win on crutches. Darius Garland hasn't played a full game with both sidelined, but he's averaged 36.4 FPPG with Mobley out and 37.5 FPPG with Mitchell out, according to RotoGrinders CourtIQ. That sets him up to produce in a mouth-watering matchup with Atlanta. Over their last 15 games, the Hawks are 23rd in defensive rating and 8th in pace. They've given up the second-most threes over that stretch, paving the way for Garland to pop. His made threes prop is set at 2.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Alex Caruso ($5,600) -- Over Alex Caruso's last 10 games, he's scored double-digit actual points just four times. Yet, he's averaging 27.5 FPPG over that stretch, highlighting his across-the-board contributions. That should come in handy against a Utah defense that's given up the second-most FPPG to PGs and the sixth-most to SGs over their last 15 games. As of Wednesday afternoon, numberFire projects Caruso for 28.5 FPs, making him the fourth-best point-per-dollar value among guards (5.09 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,000) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the lone guard with a five-figure salary tonight. SGA's cemented his place among fantasy's elite players, but it's hard to love his upside on an eight-game slate when OKC is favored by 13.5. This will be their third matchup with the Blazers. He played fewer than 23 minutes in the first two but did notch 35 minutes (and 67.2 FPs) in the most recent meeting. Rostering SGA means banking on Portland to keep things close.

D'Angelo Russell ($7,500) -- D'Angelo Russell would be a priority play if either of LA's stars missed, but he's strong mid-range option regardless. DLo has kicked off the second half in style, averaging 20.4 real-world points and 5.6 assists over the last seven games. He's cleared 40 FPs twice over that span, most recently via a 49.7-FP effort against a stout OKC defense. Kings-Lakers is the game environment to target, so Russell makes for a quality game stack in Fox-centered lineups.

Cole Anthony ($5,100) -- Orlando's backcourt is a mess for fantasy, but Cole Anthony continues to offer consistent production at PG and SG. In seven games since the All-Star break, Anthony has averaged 25 FPPG across 22.5 minutes per game. That's a solid floor, but there's upside for more tonight against Washington. The Wizards are 28th in defensive rating and have given up the most FPPG to PGs over their last 15 games. Orlando's 115.5 implied total is the fifth-highest on the slate.

Kris Dunn ($4,600) -- Kris Dunn saw his highest minute total (27) since December with Keyonte George sidelined on Monday, finishing with 22 FPs. There's not a huge ceiling here, but Dunn's dual eligibility gives him some appeal if George sits again. Dunn's 27.3-FP numberFire projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among guards (5.80 FPs per $1,000).

Wings

Top Plays

LeBron James ($10,300) -- LeBron James carries a familiar questionable tag into tonight's bout with Sacramento, but he's played six straight games, so we shouldn't worry too much about him sitting. Though LeBron's lacked true ceiling games the last month, he's consistently outputting 50-60 FPs a night. Sacramento has dipped to 25th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, so another strong outing feels imminent. Notably, James torched the Kings for 67 and 49 FPs in two early-season matchups, finishing two assists away from a pair of triple-doubles. His points + rebounds + assists prop is way up at 41.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kegan Murray ($6,500) -- Keegan Murray has begun to heat up again after a cold spell, averaging 36.3 FPPG over the last four games. In the slate's top game environment, he's a capable mid-range play tonight after previously going for 42.1 and 24.2 FPs against L.A. That's been an ongoing trend for the Lakers; they've given up the seventh-most FPPG to opposing SFs and the fourth-most made threes overall.

Andrew Wiggins ($4,900) -- Andrew Wiggins returns to the court tonight after missing four games due to a personal matter. He's likley to start, so we shouldn't have any reservations rostering him given that his absences weren't injury related. Wiggins was hovering around a $6K salary before going out and had averaged 29.1 FPPG over the previous nine outings. He's a stellar value given the recent production and salary dip.

Others to Consider

Tobias Harris ($7,400) -- Tyrese Maxey is out again tonight, thrusting Tobias Harris into a primary scoring role. Harris has caught fire over the last three games, scoring 31, 28, and 18 points. Though he only exceeded 40 FPs once over that span, tonight's date with Memphis bodes well for his fantasy prospects when the Grizzlies have given up the second-most FPPG to SFs over the last 15 games. Still, he's more of a floor than ceiling play. This matchup has the slate's lowest over/under, and both sides are bottom 10 in pace over the last 15.

Luke Kennard ($5,200) -- Luke Kennard returned to the starting lineup on Monday and turned in his best fantasy performance (32.9 FPs) of the season. The sharpshooter played point guard for the Grizz, nailing 6 threes and dishing out 7 assists over 27 minutes of action. Despite a less-than-ideal game environment, he'll at least benefit from a fleeting Sixers defense. They've given up the 3rd-most FPPG to PGs and rank 29th in defensive rating over the last 15 games.

Issac Okoro ($5,000) -- There's a good amount of value at wing tonight, but Isaac Okoro at $5K takes the cake. Okoro has exceeded 20 FPs in four straight games and is coming off a pair of 30-FP outings. The Hawks are a top-five fantasy matchup for SFs, so we can consider him regardless of Max Strus's status -- though Okoro would get a bump if Strus missed.

Bigs

Top Plays

Domantas Sabonis ($10,500) -- Domantas Sabonis may be the safest bet for 50 FPs in the NBA. A nightly triple-double threat, Sabonis has exceeded 50 FPs in four of six games since the All-Star break, and he's hit that mark in over half of his games for the year. Included in that is a 66.7-FP effort the last time he visited the Lakers, so we can confidently deploy him tonight. I don't mind going Anthony Davis ($11,400) in this same game, but Sabonis has averaged 2.17 more FPPG over the last 10. He frees up just a bit more salary, which is much needed on such a star-studded slate.

Jarrett Allen ($7,800) -- With Mobley not expected to play, Jarrett Allen becomes uber-appealing. It's not like he wasn't producing with Mobley around; Allen's averaged 37 FPPG the last 10 games, but we've seen the upside when he's the lone big. In 23 games sans Mobley, Allen's put up 40.7 FPPG and seen a 20% usage rate. Atlanta has been better of late, but they've still allowed the eighth-most FPPG to opposing Cs on the year. Allen's points + rebounds prop is set at 30.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Wendell Carter ($6,000) -- Wendell Carter Jr. takes on Washington tonight. The Wizards have given up the most FPPG to centers this season, and they'll be without Marvin Bagley III. Instead of playing another big in his place, Washington ran 6'9" Kyle Kuzma at center after Bagley went down in their most recent game. It remains to be seen if they do that again tonight, but it all lines up for a big performance for Carter. He's coming off one of his best two-game stretches of the year, amassing 42.1 and 26.3 FPs against Detroit and Charlotte.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo boasts the highest salary and numberFire projection (57.2) tonight, but he is truly questionable after missing Monday's game. If he goes, I can't argue against building around him. Giannis went for 79.2 FPs in his most recent outing -- somehow just his fifth-best fantasy performance of the year. Golden State has taken a step forward on defense, but they've still allowed the eighth-most FPPG to PFs over the last 15 games. If the Greek Freak can't go, Bobby Portis ($6,800) becomes super interesting. Portis has averaged 31.7 FPPG since the beginning of February and exploded for 49.2 FPs with Giannis out on Monday.

John Collins ($7,100) -- Chicago is a rough matchup for opposing bigs, but we can still look to John Collins in an enhanced role. Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Taylor Hendricks are all out, so Collins should see heavy minutes. He popped for 51.5 FPs in Monday's win -- his sixth 30-FP outing in the last seven games. With those three sidelined, Collins played 34 minutes, Luka Samanic ($3,800) played 23 minutes, and Omer Yurtseven ($3,700) played 7 minutes. Samanic notably started Monday's game, finishing with 19.4 FPs. He's projected for 22.6 FPs tonight, making him the slate's top point-per-dollar value (5.95 FPs per $1,000).

Ivica Zubac ($5,800) -- Ivica Zubac logged 23 minutes and turned in 23.2 FPs on Monday. That's not especially exciting, but it was encouraging to see him play well in the second leg of a back-to-back. A perpetual double-double threat, Zubac has some upside against Houston. The Rockets are in the second leg of their own back-to-back, and they've quietly given up the fourth-most points to centers over the last 15 games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.