NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 3/5/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 3/5/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Tuesday's main slate on FanDuel features eight games but some dramatically different game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,700) -- numberFire projects Luka Doncic for 60.2 FanDuel points (FPs) tonight, the highest of the slate. Luka has come out of the All-Star break red-hot, averaging 68.4 FPPG in six outings. He's playing in the slate's top game environment against the second fastest-paced team in the NBA, so a ceiling game is fully in play. Despite Doncic's questionable tag and monstrous salary, there's enough value to build around him considering the matchup.

Fred VanVleet ($7,800) -- After facing a slew of tough defenses to kick off the second half, a date with the Spurs should allow Fred VanVleet to thrive. Per FantasyPros, San Antonio has given up the third-most FPPG to opposing PGs, and they're still third in pace on the year. VanVleet went for 48.6 and 33.7 FPs in two earlier meetings with San Antonio, and he's fresh off a 24-point, 11-assist outing against Phoenix. His points + assists prop is set at 24.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tre Jones ($5,700) -- Though Houston has strong defensive numbers for the year, they've quietly allowed the fourth-most FPPG to PGs over their last 15 games. That paves the way for Tre Jones to bounce back after a stinker against Indy. Though he managed just 12.2 FPs against the Pacers, Jones had cleared 25 FPs in each of the previous three games. He's a quality game stack opposite VanVleet.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Haliburton ($9,400) -- Tyrese Haliburton is coming off a brutal two-game stretch, combining for 40.2 FPs and 4-of-23 shooting against the Pelicans and Spurs. Haliburton hasn't exceeded 50 FPs since early January, making it difficult to justify his $9.4K salary. That said, he managed 46.6 FPs against Dallas two weeks back, and his early-season dominance is hard to forget. The Pacers-Mavericks' over/under (247) is 18 points higher than the next-closest game, so this is the game to target.

C.J. McCollum ($7,700) -- Coming off three days rest, C.J. McCollum gets a Charmin Ultra Soft matchup with Toronto. The Raptors have plummeted to 25th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and they've allowed the seventh-most FPPG to PGs over that span. He went for 37.7 FPs when they squared off last month.

Vasilije Micic ($4,800) -- Vasilije Micic cracked Charlotte's starting lineup with Cody Martin out, and he's expected to start in Martin's place again tonight. Micic has been productive when given the opportunity, exceeding 25 FPs in each of his last four games with at least 24 minutes. Though Orlando has a fearsome defense, they've given up the sixth-most FPPG to PGs over their last 15 games. As of Tuesday afternoon, Micic's the top value among guards, projected for 26.2 FPs (5.45 FPs per $1,000).

Ochai Agbaji ($4,100) -- An injury to Scottie Barnes allowed former lottery pick Ochai Agbaji to crack Toronto's rotation, totaling 31.3 FPs across 32 minutes in their most recent outing. He likely won't rack up nine rebounds and two blocks on a nightly basis, but that much playing time is uber-appealing at his salary, especially if you're trying to fit one of the high-salary studs into your lineup.

Wings

Top Plays

Brandon Ingram ($8,200) -- Brandon Ingram is coming off back-to-back 30-point games, notching 42.2 and 53.6 FPs in the process. He's in a good spot to stay hot tonight against a struggling Raptors defense that's given up the most FPPG to SFs over their last 15. A fantasy-friendly over/under (229) adds to his appeal, especially considering this is a pace-up spot for New Orleans. Ingram's points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 33.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400) -- Bogdan Bogdanovic has been quiet in five games since the All-Star break, averaging 27.3 FPPG with a 36% field goal percentage. Still, Bogdanovic has played 33 minutes per game and registered a 21% usage rate over that stretch, so he's due to bounce back when the shots start falling. That could come as soon as tonight. New York has dipped to 23rd in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and they've given up the eighth-most FPPG to SFs over that span.

Herbert Jones ($5,500) -- With the ability to fill up the box score, Herbert Jones is set up nicely against the Raptors. Not only have the Raptors given up the most FPPG to SFs, but Herb's Pelicans have the third-highest implied total (119) of the slate. He continues to see heavy minutes and projects well tonight. Jones' 28.1-FP numberFire projection makes him the second-best value among SFs (5.12 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Donte DiVincenzo ($7,900) -- Since January 1st, only Stephen Curry has averaged more threes per game (5.1) than Donte DiVincenzo (4.0). Atlanta allowed the fourth-most threes and third-highest three-point percentage, and they're among the five most fantasy-friendly matchups for both SGs and SFs. DiVincenzo has contingent upside with Jalen Brunson questionable, notching 52.2 FPs when Brunson left Sunday's game early. Per RotoGrinders CourtIQ, DiVincenzo has seen a 31% usage rate when Brunson sits.

Caleb Martin ($5,300) -- Miami hosts the fantasy goldmine that is the Detroit Pistons tonight, so we can turn to their wings for some value. Coming off a 39-FP game, I prefer Caleb Martin, but Duncan Robinson ($5,600) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,200) are in play, too. Detroit is 27th in defensive rating and bottom-10 in FPs allowed to all five positions, so take your pick of Heat wings. Duncan boasts the highest projection (27.0 FPs) of the trio, followed by Jaquez (23.7) and Martin (22.1).

Josh Green ($4,600) -- Josh Green is coming off a rough three-game stretch, but he continues to start and play heavy minutes. He's flashed 30-FP upside even with Luka and Kyrie Irving healthy, so we can confidently deploy him as a salary saver against the Pacers. Indiana has given up the fourth-most FPPG to SFs on the year while Dallas sports the slate's highest implied total (125.25).

Bigs

Top Plays

Victor Wembanyama ($12,000) -- Victor Wembanyama is a game-time decision after picking up a shoulder injury in Sunday's game, but he still played 31 minutes in that one, finishing with a second straight 70-FP game. If he's able to go, Wemby is easily the top big tonight. He's averaging 66.4 FPPG since the All-Star break and now draws a Houston defense that gave up the ninth-most paint points last month. Wembanyama's points prop is set at 23.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Alperen Sengun ($8,200) -- Alperen Sengun's salary has dipped following a slew of up-and-down performances, but the upside is there for a player salaried over $9K as recently as February 9th. Tonight's matchup is ripe for a ceiling game as the Spurs have given up the third-most points in the paint and the fifth-most FPPG to Cs. numberFire projects Sengun for 45.4 FPs tonight, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.54 FPs per $1,000).

Kelly Olynyk ($5,800) -- With Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl both out, expect Kelly Olynyk to get all the work he can handle. He's played 28 and 26 minutes in the last two games, totaling 39.5 and 24.8 FPs. New Orleans isn't a great matchup, but they're league-average against centers. Olynyk's 34.1-FP numberFire projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate, regardless of position (5.88 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Josh Hart ($8,100) -- After amassing a 13-point, 19-rebound, 10-assist triple-double on Sunday, Josh Hart is a priority play if Jalen Brunson sits. Including Sunday, Hart has averaged 51.4 FPPG in Brunson's last three absences. He's worth a look even if Brunson plays given the matchup with Atlanta. The Hawks are down to 26th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, and they've given up the fourth-most FPPG to SFs over that span.

Myles Turner ($6,900) -- Myles Turner popped for 33 real-world points and 40.1 FPs when Indiana faced Dallas shortly after the All-Star break -- a recurring trend for the Mavs. Dallas has given up the fifth-most FPPG to Cs over their last 15 games, and they're just 19th in rebound rate over that span. A slate-high 247 over/under gives him plenty of upside tonight.

P.J. Washington ($5,900) -- PJ Washington continues to be under-salaried, but that's fine by me. Washington has separated himself from Dallas' other bigs, averaging 32.7 minutes and 25.7 FPPG since the All-Star break. Though he managed just 12.7 FPs in this same matchup two weeks ago, Indiana's defense is nothing to fear. The Pacers have given up the second-most FPPG to PFs this season, and they're down to 24th in defensive rating over the last 15 games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.