NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 3/12/14

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Tuesday's main slate on FanDuel features seven games but some dramatically different game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander ($11,300) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 33.4 FanDuel points (FPs) in OKC's most recent outing, his lowest fantasy output in nearly two months. A pace-up spot with Indiana puts SGA in a strong position to bounce back. The Pacers are 19th in defensive rating and fifth in pace since the All-Star break, and the Thunder boast the slate's highest implied total (123.5). There's a chance SGA could be asked to do even more with Jalen Williams questionable, but he's a top priority regardless. numberFire projects SGA for 52.6 FPs, seven more than the next-closest PG.

Jalen Green ($7,200) -- Alperen Sengun is out for the foreseeable future, paving the way for Jalen Green to shoulder more offensive responsibility. Green racked up a 26-point, 14-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in Sengun's lone previous absence this season -- though Fred VanVleet also missed that contest. Still, according to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Green has registered an eye-popping 37% usage rate and averaged 1.2 FPs per minute with Sengun off the floor this season. San Antonio is 23rd in defensive rating since the All-Star break, so Green should be able to take advantage of the enhanced role.

Mike Conley ($5,500) -- Minnesota could be short-handed tonight with Karl-Anthony Towns out and Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Kyle Anderson all questionable. Even if they all suit up, Mike Conley should take advantage of a solid matchup with the Clippers. Over their last 15 games, LA has given up the fifth-most FPPG to PGs, per FantasyPros. They've dipped to 26th in defensive rating over that span.

Others to Consider

Jordan Poole ($6,700) -- Just when things were looking up for Jordan Poole, he crashed back to earth with an 18.8-FP stinker against Miami. Still, he'd averaged 37.9 FPPG over the previous seven outings, so I'm bullish he bounces back in a soft matchup tonight. Memphis has given up the sixth-most FPPG to SGs over their last 15 games, so Poole is set up nicely. As of Tuesday afternoon, Poole's 33.5-FP numberFire projection makes him the third-best point-per-dollar value among guards (5.01 FPs per $1,000).

Luke Kennard ($4,700) -- The Grizzlies again have an extensive injury report and could potentially be down to seven healthy bodies tonight. Luke Kennard is good to go, however, and he should see plenty of work at PG against the Wizards. Kennard's fantasy production fluctuates, but he went for 25 actual and 32.9 FanDuel points just three games back. Washington is 30th in defensive rating and has allowed the fourth-most FPPG to PGs this season, giving Kennard upside in a leading role.

Wings

Top Plays

Jayson Tatum ($10,000) -- It's often hard for me to get behind Jayson Tatum's five-figure salary, but he's in line for a usage bump tonight with Jaylen Brown,  Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford all out. Tatum is averaging 52.6 FPPG with Brown out of the lineup this season, and he posted a 34% usage rate the one game Porzingis and Brown were both sidelined. Utah is a prime matchup for Tatum. Over their last 15 games, the Jazz are 30th in defensive rating, seventh in pace, and have given up the third-most FPPG to PFs.

Kyle Kuzma ($8,600) -- Kyle Kuzma continues to produce for a short-handed Washington frontcourt, one that will be without Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes tonight. Kuzma has notched at least 38 minutes and 50 FPs in consecutive games and is averaging 44.5 FPPG since the All-Star break. The similarly short-handed Grizzlies are just 21st in rebound rate since the break. Kuzma's points + rebounds prop is set at 32.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Aaron Nesmith ($5,300) -- After being eased back into action for a few games, Aaron Nesmith played 37 minutes and totaled 31.5 FPs in his most recent outing. The do-it-all forward had been trending up prior to missing two weeks with an injury, and he's likely to get as much run as he can handle with Bennedict Mathurin out for the year. Tonight isn't a great matchup for Nesmith -- OKC has given up the third fewest FPPG to SFs -- but there should be plenty of offense to go around considering the 241.0-point over/under.

Others to Consider

OG Anunoby ($6,000) -- OG Anunoby is expected to return for the Knicks tonight and serves as an intriguing mid-range play for larger tournaments. Before getting hurt, Anunoby had averaged 30.5 FPPG for the Knicks, regularly flirting with a $7K salary on FanDuel. It remains to be seen how much he plays, but with Tom Thibodeau's track record, I wouldn't be surprised if OG immediately recaptures something close to his previous role. numberFire projects Anunoby to produce 24.3 FPs in 28 minutes tonight.

Bilal Coulibaly ($4,700) -- Despite Washington's 111.0 implied total, I'm bullish on their team's fantasy output in an advantageous matchup with Memphis. Bilal Coulibaly is coming off a 28.3-FP effort across 36 minutes, so he's in a nice spot to produce against a Grizzlies D allowing the eighth-most FPPG to SFs. Coulibaly is projected for 26.8 FPs tonight, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.7 FPs per $1,000).

Bigs

Top Plays

Domantas Sabonis ($11,100) -- The Dailey Iso's Tom Vecchio has harped on Domantas Sabonis being under-salaried for months now, but Sabonis is finally over $11K. While that puts Sabonis right in the mix with fantasy's top names, we can still consider him in advantageous matchups. Tonight's bout with the Bucks fits the bill. Though Milwaukee is up to seventh in defensive rating since the All-Star break, Sabonis has exceeded 60 FPs two straight matchups with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's secured at least 15 rebounds in five consecutive games, and his rebounds prop is set at 14.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Myles Turner ($6,800) -- Indiana-OKC has the slate's highest over/under, and the Thunder have given up the seventh most FPPG to Cs over their last 15 games. That puts Myles Turner in a great spot for a ceiling game. Turner has been solid since the All-Star break, averaging 33.1 FPPG. numberFire projects him for 33.4 FPs tonight, making him the third-best point-per-dollar value among centers (4.91 FPs per $1,000).

GG Jackson ($5,700) -- Gregory Jackson is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, totaling 43.7 FPs across 37 minutes against OKC. With the Grizzlies desperate for healthy bodies, he should see a ton of run against Washington tonight. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects as the Wizards have given up the most FPs to PFs and fourth most to Cs over their last 15 games. Given how short-handed Memphis is -- and how bad Washington's interior D is -- we can consider Santi Aldama ($6,000) and Jake LaRavia ($5,600) in the same matchup.

Others to Consider

Victor Wembanyama ($11,400) -- Victor Wembanyama is expected to play tonight, but it remains to be seen how much run he gets in the second leg of a back-to-back. If Wemby can flirt with 30 minutes, the upside is there. He played 31 minutes in last night's return to action, notching 27 points and 14 rebounds in the process. With Sengun out for Houston, 6'11" Jock Landale and 6'8" Jeff Green are expected to see big minutes at center.

Luke Kornet ($4,400) -- Horford and Porzingis are both out tonight, so we can turn to Luke Kornet as a salary-saver. Kornet was active for only one of the two games KP and Horford both missed this season, but he turned in 42.1 FPs over 33 minutes in that one outing. He's coming off a pair of 20-FP outings in a reserve role, but there's certainly upside tonight against Utah. The Jazz are 30th in defensive rating and have given up the most FPPG to Cs over their last 15 games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.