FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 12/12/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Stephen Curry ($8,900) -- There are two pristine game environments on the slate, and the 234.5-point total between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns is one of them. With minimal injury news on the Dubs' front, we know Stephen Curry is the lead man with a 31.6% usage rate while averaging 43.9 FanDuel points (FDP) per 36 minutes. Phoenix hasn't been a tremendous matchup for guards, but that could all change with Bradley Beal ($7,100) -- not the world's best defender -- returning tonight.

James Harden ($8,000) -- The Los Angeles Clippers went from unmanageable to downright fun in daily fantasy overnight. With Russell Westbrook's role really diminished, L.A. has three studs in the $8,000 range who have exploded past 50 FDP within the last two weeks. numberFire's projections are a fan of James Harden from the trio, pegging him with 41.3 expected FDP tonight. That wouldn't be overly surprising in a Sacramento Kings matchup that produced his highest FDP total with the Clippers (51.6) back in November.

Dante Exum ($6,100) -- For as long as Kyrie Irving is sidelined with a foot issue, Dante Exum should remain a huge factor in the Dallas Mavericks' backcourt. Exum has eclipsed 33 minutes and 35 FDP in two straight contests with Kyrie banged up. The opposing Los Angeles Lakers defense (110.3 rating) is annoyingly stingy, but that'll less affect Exum's tiny usage rate (18.6%) when most of his stats come peripherally rather than scoring the ball.

Others to Consider

Luka Doncic ($12,400) -- This slate could truly turn upside down if Luka Doncic indeed sits with a back injury. If he plays, we'll want to get to him without Irving when the total is definitely fine (232.5), and the Lakers actually allow the 10th-most FDP per game to point guards (49.8). If Doncic is ruled out, the value floodgates will burst open with Seth Curry ($4,800), Jaden Hardy ($4,300), and others.

Malik Monk ($5,600) -- Sacramento's weird timeshare between De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis is arriving more and more frequently on Malik Monk than it used to. Monk has topped 27 minutes in five straight games, and he can let his production rate (38.6 FDP per 36 minutes) shine. In 28.4 projected minutes, nF expects 28.5 FDP from Monk. I think he's a great addition to builds using the Clippers' studs.

Wings

Top Plays

LeBron James ($10,100) -- Despite a questionable listing, I can't even really guess that LeBron James sits tonight when he had to play only 58 total minutes during the In-Season Tournament final and semifinal. If not, James should have a larger salary with the way he's producing behind a team-best 29.6% usage rate. James has posted 53.4 FDP per 36 minutes in his last four games. Motivation would be my only concern with his salary at this mark.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500) -- We won't know until closer to tip-off if Tim Hardaway Jr. missed Monday's game for a maintenance day or if there's an actual issue with his back, but if he does suit up without Irving, we should get closer to the 36 minutes he logged without Irving on Friday. He averages 31.4 FDP per 36 minutes with Kyrie off the floor, and he comfortably becomes Dallas' top scoring option if Luka is out, too.

Josh Okogie ($4,400) -- Well, this will be a new one. We'll see Phoenix without Kevin Durant due to an ankle injury, leaving the returning Bradley Beal and Devin Booker ($10,700) as the primary creators for the Suns. Josh Okogie, Keita Bates-Diop ($4,300), and Yuta Watanabe ($3,800) are the lone remaining candidates to fill K.D.'s minutes with Grayson Allen (groin) and Nassir Little (concussion) sidelined. None of those three will crush it in terms of usage rate, but they do give some punt-level value for the slate's top studs.

Others to Consider

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400) -- We haven't touched much on the Denver Nuggets-Chicago Bulls clash, which does have just a 220.0-point total. That's the lowest on the slate but not so low to believe there could be some success in going contrarian. Denver's 24th-ranked pace factor and 13th-ranked defensive rating aren't exactly fantasy gold on the surface, but I do love DeMar DeRozan's role without Zach LaVine. He's posted 44.8 FDP per 36 in that floor condition behind a gaudy usage rate (31.6%).

Andrew Wiggins ($5,000) -- While no Warrior has seen their production suffer more in the wake of the Chris Paul acquisition than Andrew Wiggins, he's still on the court plenty in a hyper-efficient offense and is hard to entirely ignore at such a small salary. Paul is questionable but expected to play with an illness, yet Wiggins -- with that factored in -- is still shining in numberFire's projections. He's expected to post 24.9 FDP in 27.8 minutes, and he likely still has a higher floor than Phoenix's trio of value wings.

Bigs

Top Plays

Nikola Jokic ($12,300) -- Last year, the Bulls were an outlier as a poor matchup for bigs. This year, they're giving up the 11th-most FDP per game (55.8) to them. That should be all it takes to sell you on the floor of the stat-stuffing Serbian, Nikola Jokic. Jokic tallied 62.3 FDP last night and hasn't fallen below 52 in any of his last 10 games. If forced to turn toward either Jokic or Doncic, I'd choose the big man at a weaker position, and he'll be significantly less popular.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800) -- My strategy with the Boston Celtics' big four all season has been to buy the dip, and that's certainly Kristaps Porzingis tonight just one game back from injury. He amassed 30.1 FDP in 29 minutes within a difficult New York Knicks matchup, but both numbers could rise in a friendlier matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers than most realize. Cleveland's allowed the 10th-most FDP per game (55.9) to pivots.

Jarrett Allen ($6,900) -- Evan Mobley (knee) missed Monday's game for the Cavs and will sit again tonight. In that case, Jarrett Allen becomes an extremely high-floor plug with forward eligibility. He's posted 35.1 FDP per 36 minutes with Mobley off the floor, and he might be a cross-off for some after logging just 15 minutes last night due to foul trouble. We'll always buy the underperforming recent value play with minimal chance he faces the same foul fate this evening.

Others to Consider

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,400) -- A quiet benefactor of K.D.'s absence could be Phoenix's center, Jusuf Nurkic. On top of a few extra shots, Durant can't act as a small-ball five to send him to the pine. Nurk has posted 42.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Durant off the floor, so he should be in a nice spot to produce against a Dubs squad allowing the third-most points per game to centers (24.8).

Aaron Gordon ($6,200) -- One reason to pass on Jokic would be to not overlap him with a potentially under-salaried teammate. Aaron Gordon has topped 29 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 15 games, including 31.9 last night without a single stock (steals plus blocks). Gordon's ceiling has come from 1.97 stocks per 36 minutes this season, and the Bulls cede 2.56 per game to opposing power forwards. That regression could be a deadly fade at this friendly salary, which is reduced due to his recent heel issue.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.