FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 12/28/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Jrue Holiday ($7,400) -- The slate's largest source of injury news could also come in its friendliest matchup. The official injury report has Jaylen Brown (illness) sitting tonight for the Boston Celtics, and it makes sense he will with the historically terrible Detroit Pistons in town as 17.0-point underdogs, per the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Most of the offensive creation likely now comes from their backcourt, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White ($7,900). Holiday, specifically, averages 37.8 FanDuel points (FDP) per 36 minutes with Brown off the floor.

Chris Paul ($6,100) -- Interestingly, two blowouts and a Denver Nuggets matchup on Christmas have tanked the salaries of the Golden State Warriors backcourt. The ceiling of Stephen Curry ($8,500) goes without saying, but don't discount Chris Paul's ability to produce in this Miami Heat matchup, either. Miami cedes the fifth-most assists per game to point guards (9.5), and CP3's four outings north of 29 FDP since a return from injury have all required double-digit assists. He could pile up dimes again tonight with Miami's 2023-24 defense (113.8 rating) not quite as menacing as previous years.

Scoot Henderson ($5,300) -- With Shaedon Sharpe (thigh) pegged for another missed contest, Malcolm Brogdon ($7,000) and Scoot Henderson should both see the bump they did on Tuesday once more. Brogdon started and posted 34 FDP, but Henderson -- easily -- had his best game as a pro with 17 points and 11 assists off the Portland Trail Blazers' bench. His salary didn't budge while Brogdon's was significantly boosted; I'm willing to continue to buy the rookie's ascension as a playmaker.

Others to Consider

Alex Caruso ($5,700) -- Speaking of salary bumps, plenty of Chicago Bulls got one in light of Nikola Vucevic's thigh injury that'll bleed into Thursday's contest with the Indiana Pacers. Indiana's league-best pace factor (106.2) and third-worst defensive rating (121.8) still makes most viable at their new marks, including Alex Caruso. The former All-Defense First Team honoree is finally seeing consistent court time (27-plus minutes in four of his last five), and his stock rate (2.98 per 36 minutes) can do the rest at a sub-$6,000 salary.

Andrew Nembhard ($5,000) -- With Bruce Brown Jr. (knee) sidelined, sophomore Andrew Nembhard has plugged right into at least 32 minutes in each of Indiana's last two games. However, his 22.6 FDP per game have largely disappointed most players at a significant draft rate. I'm still optimistic for tonight; Nembhard has posted 31.0 FDP per 36 minutes overall this season, and last year's rate starting next to Tyrese Haliburton was still a modest 27.6 FDP.

Wings

Top Plays

LeBron James ($9,900) -- I just don't understand this salary. LeBron James has topped 48 FDP in seven of his last eight games played with the exception coming on Christmas against an excellent Boston defense. He is listed questionable with a knee injury, but whether he plays or not against the lowly Charlotte Hornets shouldn't affect that component. numberFire's projections rarely shine favorably on LeBron, but he's pegged for 48.3 FDP on Thursday and pops in the model's value score due to the dip.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,800) -- On Tuesday, it felt like the Bulls took way too long to get to DeMar DeRozan. He posted 22 of his 25 points in the second half, including a pair of later daggers. DeRozan sees a gigantic 5.4 percentage-point increase in usage rate with both Vucevic and Zach LaVine off the floor, so he'll carry one of the slate's best scoring roles into a sublime matchup with the Pacers.

Trey Murphy III ($5,400) -- It was expected that the New Orleans Pelicans' gaggle of wings would take some time to sort out following Trey Murphy III's return, but it's just been his show. He's eclipsed 34 minutes in back-to-back games entering Thursday's high-paced matchup with the Utah Jazz. He's numberFire's top-projected wing per dollar of salary on this slate with 16.7 points expected in 33.1 minutes. If he can add a stock or two, his ceiling is enormous.

Others to Consider

Jimmy Butler ($8,200) -- Miami has logged three games with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup, and circumstances might force him back tonight. Kyle Lowry (soreness), Duncan Robinson (ankle), and Caleb Martin (ankle) are all listed questionable for this one. Wanting to get to Golden State's backcourt, Butler is one of the few ways that makes sense to stack their tilt given the elevated salaries from his absence. He's also projected for a healthy 40.1 FDP by numberFire should he return for this one.

Patrick Williams ($5,600) -- As someone who didn't get to Patrick Williams on Tuesday, I will today. Everything worked against him on Tuesday without Vucevic, including 24 points and 25 boards for Andre Drummond ($8,900) in Vuc's place and Ayo Dosunmu taking his spot in the closing five behind a 19-point effort. Both of those monster games likely don't repeat themselves, which should allow Williams closer to his December average for court time (32.6 minutes) in a pace-up spot.

Bigs

Top Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300) -- Karl-Anthony Towns returned from a knee injury last game but was limited to just 19.7 FDP in 29 minutes. Tonight, he'll have a tremendous shot to rebound. The Dallas Mavericks' frontcourt size has been an issue all season, allowing the fourth-most FDP per game to opposing fours (59.6). Now, the NBA's tallest one with tremendous skill will have a chance to score inside. It's no surprise to me that numberFire (40.5 projected FDP) supports a nice night in his direction.

Zion Williamson ($7,900) -- Utah is one of the three teams worse at limiting power forwards than Dallas (52.0 FDP per game allowed), and they'll have to deal with one of the game's best, as well. It's been quite some time since Zion Williamson realized a true ceiling game, but he's found his footing with at least 23 points and 8 boards in each of his last two games. Personally, he's peaking at the right time to detonate the Jazz's leaky interior.

Nick Richards ($6,000) -- While many will be inclined to turn toward Drummond, anything less than a repeat effort from Tuesday opens the door to other process plays at center. Nick Richards is one, returning to the starting lineup after Mark Williams (back) suffered a setback with his season-long issue. The Los Angeles Lakers cede the fifth-most second-chance points per game (15.5), so Richards is a solid mini-stack with LeBron in a matchup to score a few putbacks.

Others to Consider

Nikola Jokic ($12,200) -- You can't really blame anyone that looks toward Nikola Jokic with his usual cocktail of a low draft rate and high floor. Jokic has remarkably topped 50 FDP in 11 of his last 14 games, but in addition to needing more for the salary, Jokic's matchup is brutal today. Reigning DPOY Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies allow the 12th-fewest FDP per game to centers (53.5). Curiously, numberFire has Jokic pegged for 60.2 FDP; he deserved a shout.

Duop Reath ($5,500) -- The Blazers' stunning Tuesday win over the Sacramento Kings largely came at the hands of Scoot Henderson and Duop Reath off the bench. Reath, a rookie from LSU, logged 32 minutes, posted 40.8 FDP, and held starter Moses Brown to just 14 minutes of action. We won't get a lineup before lock, but Reath is a high-risk, high-reward value plug at center if Portland liked what they saw enough to give him another full-time shift in place of Deandre Ayton (knee) tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.