FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 1/8/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,800) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a great spot to produce in a road date with the Washington Wizards. According to FantasyPros, Washington gives up the second-most fantasy points (FP) per game to opposing PGs, and they play at the second-fastest pace. My only concern is a minutes dip in the event of a blowout -- the Oklahoma City Thunder are 11.5-point favorites.

Derrick White ($8,000) -- I'm typically one to go heavy at point guard, but Derrick White is an enticing midrange option against the Indiana Pacers. The Boston Celtics sport a 123.75 implied total tonight, and White could see a major uptick in usage with Jayson Tatum sidelined. Per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, White has averaged 1.35 FP per minute with both players off the floor, and he's notched 50.7 FP in the two full games he sat.

Kris Dunn ($5,000) -- Point guard is pretty dry from a value standpoint tonight, but I'm inclined to go back to the well with Kris Dunn. Dunn doesn't have an especially high ceiling given the Utah Jazz's deep rotation, but he's averaged 24.5 FP in nine games since entering the starting lineup. The game environment (242 over/under) and matchup -- the Milwaukee Bucks allow the fifth-most FP to PGs -- make Dunn a safe value.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Haliburton ($11,300) -- It doesn't take much convincing to get me to Tyrese Haliburton, even against the Boston Celtics' second-rated defense. Hali didn't have his best game against Boston over the weekend -- he shot five of 17 from the floor and recorded just seven assists -- but still managed 45.7 FP thanks to strong periphery stats. Although Indy scored a season-low 101 points in that loss, I'd expect a much closer game if Tatum or Porzingis sit. While SGA just edges him out as the top guard tonight, Haliburton's proven capable of breaking the slate.

Jordan Clarkson ($7,200) -- I wouldn't call Jordan Clarkson a safe option tonight, but there's no denying his upside. Over his last eight games, Clarkson eclipsed 40 FP four times but was held under 20 FP three times. Still, there's a lot to like tonight between the high over/under and soft matchup. The Bucks have given up the sixth-most points per game to PGs and the second-most to SGs.

Wings

Top Plays

Kawhi Leonard ($9,000) -- After eclipsing 50 FP in his first two games back from injury, Kawhi Leonard has been held under 40 in each of the last two. While he shot just 13-32 over that span, his fantasy value has remained afloat thanks to strong rebounding and defensive marks. Kawhi dropped 54.1 FP against these very Suns last week, so there's plenty of room for optimism against their 25th-rated defense. Because this is the only game that starts after 8:00 Eastern, I am a little nervous to lock in someone who notoriously sits one game in back-to-backs. However, Leonard is expected to play, and even if he doesn't, Paul George ($8,300) is a fine late swap.

Khris Middleton ($7,000) -- If there was ever a spot to roster Khris Middleton, it'd be tonight. Damian Lillard has been ruled out, but Milwaukee still boasts the second-highest implied total of the slate. That should benefit Middleton -- he's seen a 32.6% usage rate and averaged 1.24 FP per minute with Lillard off the floor this season -- and he slots in as numberFire's best point-per-dollar value via a 38.4-FP projection. It helps that Utah is bottom-10 in FP allowed to both SGs and SFs.

Luguentz Dort ($5,500) -- Luguentz Dort has really outperformed his salary of late, averaging 28.8 FP in his last four games. He's clocked in with 31.2 minutes per game over that span, more than enough to produce against a porous Washington defense. The Wiz allow the most FP per game to opposing SFs, so Dort could be a big part of OKC's slate-leading 128.75 implied total.

Others to Consider

Josh Richardson ($5,000) -- Jimmy Butler is out again tonight, so Josh Richardson could provide some nice value in his place. After missing four games with an injury, Richardson has returned to notch 15.7 and 36.1 FP the last two games. Richardson's been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Butler sitting, averaging 24.0 FP and 29.7 minutes in seven games without him. I don't want much exposure to this game's 219 over/under, but Richardson's low salary has a place in lineups.

Malik Beasley ($4,400) -- Malik Beasley is a nice value tonight with Lillard and Payne out. It's a small sample, but Beasley has seen a 26.4% usage rate and scored 1.1 FP per minute with those two off the floor this season. He's been quiet of late but has averaged 24.5 FP in 17 games playing 30-plus minutes this season. The Jazz are abysmal against wings, so Beasley should have plenty of chances to contribute toward Milwaukee's 126 implied total.

MarJon Beauchamp ($3,800) -- The Bucks have several guys that present good value with Dame out, but MarJon Beauchamp takes the cake in our projection model. Beauchamp is numberFire's second-best point-per-dollar value on the board thanks to his 20.7-FP projection and minuscule salary. He's played 20 minutes in three of his last five outings, so there's reason to buy into his role further increasing tonight -- just bear in mind the rookie has only notched more than 20 FP three times.

Bigs

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,800) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo carries a 60.5-point numberFire projection tonight -- 8.0 more than the next-closest player. The salary is tough to swallow, but this is a ceiling game for Giannis. The Greek Freak has averaged 1.69 FP per minute with Dame off the floor this season, up from his usual 1.66. He's posted an absurd 44% usage rate in two games Lillard's missed, notching 64.9 and 69.5 FP, respectively. I'm building around him tonight.

Brook Lopez ($6,900) -- Based on numberFire's 36.6-FP projection, Brook Lopez is the best point-per-dollar center option tonight. Lopez has been quiet of late but has averaged 1.05 FP per minute with Dame off the floor. The Jazz have been a top-five fantasy defense against centers, but they're bottom-10 in defensive rating overall, and there are shots to go around sans Lillard. By that same logic, Bobby Portis ($5,300) makes sense here, as well. Portis carries a much more favorable salary, but he's eclipsed 20 FP just once in his last five games.

Aaron Nesmith ($5,900) -- Aaron Nesmith's FanDuel salary has been climbing, but he's still a nice value at $5,900. Nesmith has eclipsed 24 FP in six straight games, and he's proven capable of producing even on off nights. Despite shooting 3-13 against Boston over the weekend, Nesmith still put up 24.8 FP thanks to three steals and a block. That was the third time in the last five games he's racked up at least three stocks (steals plus blocks).

Others to Consider

Chet Holmgren ($8,500) -- The matchup is there for Chet Holmgren to have a ceiling game tonight. OKC's 128.75 implied total is enticing enough, but Washington has also given up the most points, rebounds, and FP per game to opposing centers. Chet has been held under 40 FP in six of his last seven games, but he's still averaged 34.1 FP over that span.

John Collins ($5,500) -- There's plenty of fantasy production to go around in this Bucks-Jazz matchup, and John Collins is a low-salary way to get in on the action. Collins has quietly run hot since the new year, averaging 15.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 27.3 FP over his last four games. Last game's 27 minutes was his highest since early December, and he benefits from having PF and C eligibility.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.