FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 7/3/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.


Pitchers to Target

Chris Sale, Braves ($11,300)

We have two standout high-salary arms tonight, and Chris Sale is one of them. The Atlanta Braves' lefty is having a monster season and is currently the second favorite to win the NL Cy Young, listed at +350 NL Cy Young odds.

Sale -- who owns a 2.55 SIERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 15.1% swinging-strike rate -- gets a home date with the San Francisco Giants, and oddsmakers are expecting him to deal. Not only does San Fran have the slate's second-lowest implied total (3.48), but Sale's K prop is at 7.4 with -144 odds on the over. Sale is actually a +150 favorite to lead the day in strikeouts.

If you're looking for a reason to be wary of Sale, the matchup is it. The Giants sport the fifth-best wOBA against southpaws (.335) and have the eighth-lowest K rate in the split (20.3%).

However, our MLB DFS projections have Sale pegged for 41.2 FanDuel points, 6.9 more than any other pitcher (as of early Wednesday).

Zack Wheeler, Phillies ($10,700)

Zack Wheeler is the other top-tier high-salary hurler in tonight's player pool, and he's the only guy with shorter NL Cy Young odds (+200) than Sale.

Wheeler definitely has the easier matchup. He's at Wrigley to do battle with a Chicago Cubs offense that has the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties (24.5%). The Cubbies' bats have been especially K-prone lately, racking up a 29.3% strikeout rate across the past 14 days.

Wheeler is basically repeating his stellar 2023 numbers, pitching to a 3.49 SIERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate.

With the Cubs holding a lowly 3.85 implied total and no wind to worry about today in Chicago, Wheeler is an excellent choice tonight and is someone I'll have a lot of if it looks like Sale is going to be more popular.

David Festa, Tigers ($6,100)

The way things look early Wednesday, I'm thinking I'll either get all the way up to Sale or Wheeler or I'll take the extreme value in David Festa and load up on bats.

Festa was a breakout minor leaguer this season, registering a 3.41 xFIP with elite strikeout numbers -- including a 35.1% K rate and 16.8% swinging-strike rate -- over 59 2/3 Triple-A innings.

His MLB debut didn't go well as Festa fanned just two and permitted five earned runs over five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gets a much softer landing spot today at home versus the Detroit Tigers. Against righties, Detroit has the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) and fifth-lowest wOBA (.292).

Our MLB DFS projections slot Festa as the night's top point-per-dollar pitcher, projecting him for 26.1 FanDuel points.

Stacks to Target

Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies

Coors underwhelmed last night, but there's every reason to think we'll get a lot of runs today as this game's total is 11.5. The Milwaukee Brewers carry a slate-best 6.05 implied total while the Colorado Rockies' 4.95 implied total ranks third.

Milwaukee will face Dakota Hudson, the owner of a 5.53 SIERA and 12.0% K rate.

Colorado's offense will see Colin Rea. After a decent 2023 campaign, Rea has fallen off a cliff this year, struggling to a 16.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% swinging-strike rate.

As the implied totals suggest, the Brewers' offense is the better option between these two, but everyone in either lineup is plenty viable.

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers catch my eye as an offense that is in a good spot (4.52 implied total) and may go a bit overlooked.

Texas is at home versus Adam Mazur. The San Diego Padres' rookie has a 6.86 SIERA and 10.7% strikeout rate through his first 22 1/3 MLB frames, so, yeah, it's not going well.

The Rangers' lineup will get a lift if Corey Seager ($3,400) plays, but even if Seager (wrist) sits again, there's a lot to like -- including Marcus Semien ($3,300), Adolis Garcia ($3,300), Wyatt Langford ($3,100), Josh Smith ($3,000) and Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900)

Others to Consider

  • New York Yankees (4.75 implied total) -- At home versus Andrew Abbott. Abbott's career 50.7% fly-ball rate probably won't play well in the Bronx, even if this Yanks lineup isn't that scary outside of Juan Soto ($4,500) and Aaron Judge ($4,900).
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (5.22) -- LA is at home against Cristian Mena, who is making his MLB debut. It's a brutal spot for Mena. While the LA offense has cooled a bit lately, you know what they're capable of.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.