MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 5/11/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 5/11/24

On Saturday's slate, we've got an interesting dynamic of several top aces going alongside a game at Coors Field that might bear teeth after last night's quiet affair. Where should we spend coin?

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Freddy Peralta ($10,500)

Without a true value option that shouts upside, the top priority should still be securing points at pitcher despite a pretty mouthwatering game at Coors. Freddy Peralta ($10,500) appears to be the best place to do so.

That's because the St. Louis Cardinals' offense -- especially against righties -- is quickly hurdling to the bottom of the league despite its name value. Dylan Carlson and Paul Goldschmidt don't have a hit since April, and they've posted the league's eighth-worst OPS (.661) and sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.6%) against righties overall.

St. Louis could be in trouble when tasked to face the Milwaukee Brewers' outstanding righty. In his first full season as the true ace, Peralta has posted a tremendous 3.10 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), suppressing hard contact well with just a 35.8% rate allowed. In terms of fantasy upside, Freddy's 11.64 K/9 is third-best in all of baseball.

Unsurprisingly, Peralta heads FanDuel Research's MLB projections with 38.9 expected fantasy points today. I don't expect him to be overwhelmingly popular due to Coors' presence.

Bryce Miller ($10,000)

More likely, I'm expecting the field to turn toward Bryce Miller ($10,000) for salary savings.

The Oakland Athletics have a reputation as a poor offense against righties, and to some extent, that is true. In this realm, Oakland strikes out the fourth-most often in MLB against righties (25.5%). However, the trade-off has been a 102 wRC+ that is 11th-best in baseball. They're much more likely to take advantage of any mishaps Miller might offer.

On paper, the Seattle Mariners' righty can hang with Peralta in some respects. A 3.57 SIERA would indicate such. I'm a bit concerned regression is coming, though, if a lower swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and higher hard-hit rate (44.7%) than Peralta are any indication.

Of course, Miller's T-Mobile Park at home is one of the best venues for pitchers in the league compared to Peralta's neutral home park in Milwaukee. That's an arrow in his direction, too.

Like when it comes to buying toilet paper, I'm spending up. I prefer Peralta, but Miller could also get the job done on a tighter budget.

Others to Consider

  • Nick Lodolo ($9,900)
    • Lodolo's 2.78 SIERA and 32.2% strikeout rate should be a factor on any slate -- especially in cooler, marine Bay Area air. The San Francisco Giants' ability to avoid strikeouts against southpaws (20.0% rate) is the driving factor to put him the slightest bit behind the other two.
  • Mason Black ($6,300)
    • On the other side of that one, Black is a total dart if you want to go in the other direction toward Coors. He had a 27.0% or higher K rate each of the last two years in Triple-A, and the Cincinnati Reds have scuffled to an 80 wRC+ and 27.9% strikeout rate against righties. I certainly wouldn't stack Cincy.

Stacks to Target

Colorado Rockies

Anyone who knows me knows I hate rostering Coors Field. At elevated salaries, you're stepping onto the same square as several others. There's no real edge when the salaries are up.

That's not the case here. The Colorado Rockies' salaries pale in comparison to the visiting Texas Rangers, and they're expected to carry a fraction of the popularity. I'm in.

Unlike Colorado starter Ryan Feltner (3.81 SIERA), it's been a tougher than advertised season for Texas' Andrew Heaney. Heaney has carried a HR/9 rate of 1.40 or higher in each of the last three seasons, but it's down to 1.25 despite massive flyball (50.2%) and hard-hit (43.5%) rates in 2024. Regression is coming, and Coors Field could be its springboard.

The Rockies' offense should be better against lefties. Key righties like Brenton Doyle ($3,700), Ezequiel Tovar ($3,400), Elias Diaz ($3,200), and Brendan Rodgers ($3,000) have better career marks against southpaws than orthodox hurlers. Oddly, lefty Ryan McMahon ($3,600) has been the one crushing them for an .886 OPS this season.

Texas' bullpen has also struggled to a 4.20 xFIP (10th-highest in MLB) this season. Given it works with Peralta, a contrarian dart at the Blake Street Bombers caught my eye right away today.

Cleveland Guardians

One of the reasons I have a tendency to meander away from Coors is that stacks like the Cleveland Guardians largely go ignored. Okay.

Cleveland draws the usual punching bag on main slates, the Chicago White Sox, in the Southsiders' homer-friendly park today. Chicago is sending out Mike Clevinger, who hasn't posted a SIERA under 4.80 in consecutive seasons even if his current 9.86 SIERA might be unfair to judge in a tiny, two-inning sample.

Clevinger's 25.0% walk rate and 41.4% hard-hit rate allowed could be an issue, though. As we know by now, the fun with the Pale Hose only begins when the starter departs, holding the league's second-worst reliever xFIP (4.77) to this stage.

The Guards are quite easy to stack, as well. Only Jose Ramirez ($3,900), Josh Naylor ($3,700), Andres Gimenez ($3,000), and Will Brennan ($2,600) on the active roster have a wRC+ currently above 90 against righties. The rest of the lineup stinks, but it concentrates the production to our lineups.

It's always stunning to me stacks like this are entirely off the radar for a Texas team facing a decent righty, but we'll take it.

Others to Consider

  • Los Angeles Dodgers
    • L.A.'s 5.13-run implied team total is highest outside of Coors Field, and I wouldn't blame anyone for picking on Matt Waldron's 4.86 expected ERA (xERA). I just wish I had a value arm to target them more reliably.
  • Kansas City Royals
    • The Crowns' popularity might be a bit high when Tyler Anderson does a nice job of limiting hard contact, but their salaries work well with Peralta facing the Los Angeles Angels' dreadful bullpen if Anderson has an off night. They're a decent tournament pivot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.