FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Monday 7/1/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Monday 7/1/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.


Pitchers to Target

Hunter Brown ($9,300)

It has been a tale of two seasons for Hunter Brown ahead of his 16th start for the Houston Astros in 2024. From the start of the season to the end of May -- which encompasses his first 10 starts -- Brown was getting somewhat unlucky with a 6.39 ERA despite carrying a formidable 3.88 xFIP.

Things have begun to even out for Brown, who has scored 34-plus FanDuel points in each of his last six outings. While the Toronto Blue Jays are striking out at the sixth-lowest rate (19.9%) against right-handed pitching, Brown has given up a combined one earned run across his last four starts.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays are registering the 14th-lowest wOBA (.304) and 8th-lowest ISO (.138) in the last 30 days. Given Brown's recent stretch of success, he should be in store for another solid performance against Toronto to begin the week.

David Peterson ($8,600)

When looking at overall metrics, it may seem crazy to suggest David Peterson as a viable play -- even on a three-game main slate. Even though Peterson is carrying a 4.85 xFIP and 4.84 SIERA, he's shown positive progress in the strikeout department in recent starts.

Although it's a small sample size, Peterson has tallied 30-plus FanDuel points in three of his five starts for the New York Mets this year. After racking up three or fewer Ks in each of his first three appearances, Peterson has logged six-plus Ks in back-to-back starts -- notably against the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers.

The Washington Nationals aren't viewed as a strikeout-prone team, but they are striking out more versus lefties (22.1% rate, 11th-highest), compared to a 20.7% rate (10th-lowest) when facing righties. On a smaller main slate, Peterson could be a way to be somewhat different in tournaments.

Others to Consider

  • MacKenzie Gore ($9,800) is undoubtedly the pitcher with the highest strikeout upside on the slate, ranking in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate (26.6%) and 79th percentile in whiff rate (28.9%). At the same time, the Mets own the seventh-lowest strikeout rate (19.7%), fourth-highest wOBA (.340), second-highest wRC+ (125), and fourth-highest ISO (.180) against southpaws.
  • Bryse Wilson ($7,400) is far from a safe pick as he sits in the 24th percentile in xERA (4.65), 20th percentile in xBA (.266), and 10th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.2%) ahead of a start at Coors Field. What makes Wilson enticing on this slate is the fact he's taking on a Colorado Rockies squad that has the 10th-worst wOBA (.298), 2nd-worst wRC+ (77), 8th-worst ISO (.139), and 3rd-highest strikeout rate (25.7%) versus right-handed pitchers.

Stacks to Target

Milwaukee Brewers

On the other side of the field in the matchup at Coors Field, the Milwaukee Brewers are primed to score plenty of runs versus Austin Gomber. Aside from giving up three-plus earned runs in five consecutive starts, Gomber resides in the 17th percentile in xERA (4.87), 14th percentile in xBA (.275), 12th percentile in strikeout rate (16.3%), and 10th percentile in barrel rate (10.6%).

While Milwaukee isn't crushing lefties this season, they still have a handful of hitters who can excel against Gomber and Colorado's bullpen at Coors. Joey Ortiz ($3,300), Christian Yelich ($4,500), and William Contreras ($3,700) all possess a wOBA of .333 or higher and a wRC+ of 116 or higher when facing lefties.

Once Gomber -- who has pitched fewer than six innings in his four of his last five starts -- exits Monday's contest, the bullpen of the Rockies has the worst SIERA (4.48), worst xFIP (4.59), worst WHIP (1.61), and lowest strikeout rate (18.1%) in all of baseball. This is a perfect opportunity for the Brewers to improve their numbers versus southpaws.

Houston Astros

The Blue Jays are expected to hand the ball to Yariel Rodriguez to begin Monday's contest versus the Astros, so we should expect plenty of Toronto's bullpen. Besides Rodriguez never pitching more than four innings through his first six starts of the campaign, he's posting a 4.91 xFIP, 5.11 SIERA, and 14.1% walk rate.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays' bullpen is logging the fifth-worst SIERA (4.04), eighth-worst xFIP (4.30), ninth-worst WHIP (1.31), and fourth-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%). These metrics could be a major issue against an Astros team that has registered the seventh-best wOBA (.338), sixth-best wRC+ (121), ninth-best ISO (.172), and third-lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) in the last 30 days.

Jose Altuve ($3,800), Alex Bregman ($3,100), Yordan Alvarez ($4,100), and Yainer Diaz ($2,900) are the primary targets in Houston stacks. Mauricio Dubon ($2,700) and Cesar Salazar ($2,600) are also viable salary-saving options in wraparound stacks as both of them have produced nine-plus FanDuel points in three of their last five contests.

Others to Consider

  • New York Mets

As mentioned above, the Mets are tallying the fourth-best wOBA, second-best wRC+, fourth-best ISO, and sixth-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Plenty of people could avoid stacking the Mets with Gore being the highest-salaried pitcher on the slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.