FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball NLCS Helper: Diamondbacks at Phillies, Game 2

In Game 1, the Arizona Diamondbacks finally took their first loss of the postseason, falling to a Philadelphia Phillies team that continues to slug home run after home run. The series resumes at 8:07 pm ET as the D-Backs try to even things up.

For those unfamiliar with the single-game daily fantasy baseball format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except you only roster hitters, and lineups consist of five flex spots. The one twist? One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives twice his total fantasy points, along with a "STAR" slot that gets 1.5 times the points. Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP and STAR carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.

On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel single-game slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Both Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola have pitched well in these playoffs, but I tend to lean toward Nola being the more likely candidate to shut the opposing team down.

While Nola had an inconsistent regular season, his 3.63 xFIP, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate suggest that he was better than his results, and we've seen him produce plenty of strong campaigns over the years.

He was in good form entering the postseason, and that's carried over to allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 2/3 playoff innings with 12 strikeouts.

That being said, Nola did struggle with home runs this year, giving up 1.49 per 9 innings, and Arizona has been no stranger to hitting its own share of dingers during this run.

Kelly shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, logging 6 1/3 scoreless innings, so he could be up to the task tonight. However, despite better results than Nola this year, his 3.84 xFIP, 25.9% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate weren't quite as strong overall.

The right-hander didn't cough up as many home runs (1.01 per 9 innings), which could help him out against this hot Phillies offense. Between a non-elite strikeout rate and a non-elite ground-ball rate (45.2%), it might not be enough to keep Philadelphia off the board.

Slate Strategy

There's little doubt that Bryce Harper ($9,500) will be the chalk MVP/STAR option after slugging his fourth postseason home run on Monday, but he and Kyle Schwarber ($7,000) have appealing home run odds and will have the platoon advantage. Both players paced the team with barrel rates above 15.0% in 2023.

Kelly had slightly worse numbers facing lefties this season, and that's typically been the case over his career. Compared to same-handed matchups, he had worse marks in xFIP (4.12), strikeout rate (24.9%), and walk rate (10.5%). He also allowed a 38.0% FanGraphs hard-hit rate versus lefties.

Given that Schwarber was having a quiet postseason until last night, I like rostering him in either multiplier slot with the thinking that he'll be much less popular than Harper. Per the MLB odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Schwarber's +285 odds to hit a home run are the shortest on either team (Harper is tied for second at +360).

After slugging his fifth postseason home run, Nick Castellanos ($7,000) trails just Yordan Alvarez in the category. Trea Turner ($8,500) has at least one hit in all seven Phillies games (five multi-hit games), all while tacking on two home runs and four stolen bases. Both also figure to be popular and for good reason.

J.T. Realmuto ($6,000) ought to be in a lot of lineups as a value play, but he might have some contrarian MVP/STAR appeal, too. Realmuto has two home runs in the playoffs, and his power metrics weren't all that different than Castellanos' this season. Their FanDuel Sportsbook odds to hit a home run are very similar, as well. Realmuto (+420) actuallyhas the slight edge over Castellanos (+480).

Of the remaining Phillies bats, Brandon Marsh ($5,500) is a good value play despite batting low in the order. Marsh will have the platoon advantage, and he recorded both double-digit home runs and stolen bases this season. He went off for 30.9 FanDuel points a few games back, and he's quietly put together a .430 postseason wOBA.

For Arizona, I'm guessing other than Corbin Carroll ($9,000) and maybe Christian Walker ($8,000) and/or Ketel Marte ($7,500), the Diamondbacks will be the less popular side for the MVP/STAR slots. As noted earlier, Nola did allow plenty of home runs this season, and that included giving up 1.66 per 9 innings to lefties off a 41.9% fly-ball rate.

While Carroll probably won't slip through the cracks, Marte could fall below the roster percentages of the top Phillies at MVP/STAR. Walker won't have the platoon advantage, but he's been Arizona's best power hitter all season, and his +400 home run odds are the team's best and just behind Schwarber, Harper, and Turner.

Other than a four-hit game in Game 1 of the NLDS, Tommy Pham ($7,500) has been somewhat quiet, but he brings power/speed upside and bats third -- a pretty enticing combination at this salary.

Although I'm not convinced Gabriel Moreno ($5,500) keeps this up, his three barrels are third on Arizona behind Walker (six) and Marte (four). If nothing else, the salary is appealing, and he's locked into the five-hole.

If you need a punt, you could do worse than roll the dice with Evan Longoria ($4,500) despite pinch-hit risk. Waiting on some production, Longoria is second on the team in hard hits (10) behind Marte (11), and his +560 home run odds are equal to higher-salaried players like Lourdes Gurriel ($6,500) and Alec Bohm ($6,500).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.