FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 9/12/23

Weather ended up knocking out a pair of games last night, but that shouldn't be an issue on Tuesday's main slate. This is another night where we have an appealing selection of both pitching and hitting.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

You can probably make the case for a few different guys to be the SP1, but Freddy Peralta ($10,500) is the first pitcher I'm drawn to tonight.

Despite a mediocre start last week, Peralta has been on a roll for a while now. Dating back to the beginning of July, the right-hander has produced a 2.76 xFIP, 37.9% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate over his last 11 starts. During this stretch, he's reached double-digit strikeouts five times, which is more than what most pitchers have achieved all season.

The Miami Marlins are a below-average offense, and while they aren't a great opponent for generating Ks, that's less of a concern when the opposing pitcher is dealing like this. Miami's 3.35 implied team total is one of the night's lowest marks.

Justin Verlander ($10,300) continues to be a conundrum, as his 3.68 xERA suggests he's mostly deserving of his 3.23 ERA, yet both a 4.53 SIERA and 4.69 xFIP point to regression. His 21.0% strikeout rate is his lowest in years, and a 44.6% fly-ball rate probably ought to be leading to more home runs than he's allowed thus far.

The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, but even if we assume he regresses a bit, that's unlikely to come against the Oakland Athletics (slate-low 3.24 implied team total). Against right-handed pitching, the A's active roster comes in with a 91 wRC+, .158 ISO, and 24.6% strikeout rate. Verlander's K prop is set at 6.5 -- the same as Peralta and some others on the slate -- which is a promising sign for his upside.

Joe Ryan ($9,900) faces a more potent Tampa Bay Rays lineup, but if he can avoid the long ball, this is a good matchup for punchouts. The Rays' active roster owns a scary .196 ISO versus righties, but they also strike out 24.2% of the time.

Home runs have very much been an issue for Ryan and his 50.8% fly-ball rate (1.72 dingers allowed per nine innings), but most of them have come against right-handed batters, and he should have to navigate through only a few righty power bats tonight. Additionally, temperatures are expected to drop to around 60 degrees at Target Field, further helping his cause.

Ryan got up to 89 pitches in his last start -- an outing that involved a rain delay -- so he should be at a full workload in his fourth start returning from the IL. Both his 29.1% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate are among the best on the slate.

Max Scherzer ($10,100) is coming off a forgettable start against the Houston Astros, and this isn't an easy spot versus a Toronto Blue Jays team mostly consisting of low-strikeout hitters. He's posted a 3.63 xFIP and 32.3% strikeout rate in seven outings since joining the Texas Rangers, though, so he's definitely in the mix. Scherzer has fared far better in same-handed matchups, so he lines up well against this righty-heavy team.

Bryan Woo ($9,500) has a higher salary than we would like, but he could be worth taking a chance on against an Los Angeles Angels that could still be without Shohei Ohtani. As of this writing, the Angels have the third-worst implied team total (3.42).

It's hard to have much faith in Lance Lynn ($9,000) after back-to-back shellings, but he shouldn't have to face many lefties on the San Diego Padres tonight, which should boost his outlook. Lynn has a 4.91 xFIP and 20.3% strikeout rate versus lefties, whereas he has a far better 3.81 xFIP and 28.2% strikeout versus righties.

Hitting Breakdown

The Chicago Cubs have the highest implied team total again (7.02), the result of both Coors Field and right-hander Chris Flexen.

Flexen has poor numbers wherever you look, but right-handed batters have been his biggest issue. In those same-handed matchups, he's posted a 5.83 xFIP, 11.8% strikeout rate, 9.0% walk rate, and 39.6% ground-ball rate. Of his 23 home runs allowed this year, 16 have come off righties.

All the Cubs are on the table against such a weak pitcher, but those reverse splits make the righty sticks especially appealing. Consider bumping up guys like Dansby Swanson ($3,600) and Seiya Suzuki ($3,500).

The Houston Astros failed to get going last night, inexplicably getting shut out by the Oakland Athletics, but they should bounce back against lefty JP Sears.

Sears has shown promise at times this season, but his strikeout rate is down to 21.9%, and when you combine that with a 53.8% fly-ball rate and far too many barrels, you get 1.84 home runs allowed per nine innings.

The southpaw actually has worse splits against lefties (5.69 xFIP) compared to righties (5.02), so Houston lefties Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) and Kyle Tucker ($3,700) are every bit as likely to get in on the fun.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are also in play against right-hander Jose Butto.

Butto had a successful start against the Washington Nationals last week, but nothing in his profile suggests this will last. Over 21 MLB innings, Butto's put up a 5.62 xFIP, 17.0% strikeout rate, and 16.0% walk rate in 2023. In Triple-A this season (91 innings), we see more of the same: a 5.75 xFIP, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 11.8% walk rate.

Corbin Carroll ($3,900), Ketel Marte ($3,500), Christian Walker ($3,300), Tommy Pham ($3,200), and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,100) give us plenty of power to work with; all five have an ISO above .200.

The Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers should also be on the radar.

The Rockies remain one of the league's worst lineups, but they should be able to get the ball in play against regression candidate Javier Assad (4.73 SIERA; 18.1% strikeout rate).

Ryne Nelson doesn't get strikeouts (15.2%) or grounders (37.0%), making him ripe for home runs. Pete Alonso ($4,000) and the Mets should take advantage.

Los Angeles are facing Michael Wacha, who's enjoyed a strong campaign but profiles more as an average pitcher, which is good enough for us to jump on the Dodgers' bats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.