FA Cup Final Betting Picks: Manchester City vs. Manchester United (5/25/24)

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
FA Cup Final Betting Picks: Manchester City vs. Manchester United (5/25/24)

The FA Cup is the oldest soccer cup competition in the world, dating back to 1871. Play in this year's tournament started back in August with teams trying to qualify for the proper competition alongside teams in the top five divisions that began in November.

The Premier League teams enter the competition in the third round, and two EPL teams made it to the final once again. In fact, this is a direct repeat of last season's final as it will be a Manchester derby between Manchester City and Manchester United. The match is scheduled to take place at 10 a.m. ET this coming Saturday.

What do the FA Cup odds on FanDuel Sportsbook say about this match?

All soccer odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

FA Cup Final Betting Picks

Best Bet: Manchester City -1.5 Goals (-122)

Manchester City are coming into this match after clinching the Premier League title last Sunday, which is exactly how City came into last season's final. They won't have to worry about a looming Champions League final this time.

City's form to close out the league was practically flawless. In the final six games, they scored 20 goals and conceded just two.

Manchester United's form has been all over the place all season -- especially when considering just the results. In the last three games, they had an embarrassing 4-0 defeat to Crystal Palace before respectable wins against Newcastle and Brighton to close out the campaign.

The underlying numbers are not kind to Manchester United. They were the sixth-worst team in the league by expected goal (xG) differential, according to FBRef's xG model. Man City were second in the league by this metric and fifth across Europe's big five leagues.

Last season's final was close, with Man City winning by a 2-1 score. That was a much better Manchester United team, though, one that had finished third in the league and beat City during the season. This year, City won both meetings by a combined score of 6-1, and the cumulative xG was 7.3-1.1 in Man City's favor.

All signs point to a City win, and it's pretty easy to envision this being a comfortable victory for them. We have to lay only -122 odds on City to win by at least two goals.

Player Prop

Phil Foden to Score (+150)

The Premier League Player of the Season award was given to Phil Foden. He scored 19 goals in the league, which was tied for the fourth-most among all players. He had 29 goals in all competitions, including five over his last five games.

Foden scored twice in the last meeting with Manchester United in March. United allowed the fifth-most xG of any Premier League team, so Foden should have plenty of chances to score on Saturday.

Erling Haaland is -150 to score at anytime, and the two have similar stats since the calendar flipped to 2024. Haaland has scored 19 goals in 22 matches while Foden has netted 18 goals in 23 matches. With Foden at +150, I'll back him to score instead of Haaland.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.