Euro 2024 Spain vs. Italy: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Euro 2024 Spain vs. Italy: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Euro 2024 is underway and is starting to take shape.

On Thursday, June 20th, Spain (8th in the FIFA rankings) face off with Italy (9th).

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Spain vs. Italy: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Spain vs. Italy Odds

  • Spain to Win: +115
  • Italy to Win: +280
  • Draw: +210
  • Over 2.5 Goal Odds: +126
  • Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -154

Spain vs. Italy Analysis

Spain's 3-0 win against Croatia in their opening match was interesting to say the least. Croatia led in possession (54% to 46%) and shots (15 to 11).

However, Spain scored three times on five shots on target; Croatia didn't convert any of four shots on target.

Per FBRef, Croatia won the match on paper with 2.1 expected goals while Spain had 2.0. xGPhilosophy had the xGoal score 2.67 to 2.00 in favor of Croatia.

Italy beat Albania 2-1 with an xGoal output of 1.5-0.5. They dominated possession (68% to 32%), shots (17 to 8), and shots on target (5 to 1).

Spain vs. Italy Prediction

Opta's model really likes the Spanish side and sees them as 45.8% likely to win with 26.8% draw probability for this matchup between juggernauts.

MasseyRatings is actually higher: 48% for Spain and 25% for Italy.

The models are pretty much right in line with each side's win odds (+115 for Spain and +280 for Italy).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.