Soccer

Euro 2024 Slovakia vs. Ukraine: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Euro 2024 Slovakia vs. Ukraine: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Euro 2024 is underway and is starting to take shape.

On Friday, June 21st, Slovakia (45th in the FIFA rankings) face off with Ukraine (24th).

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Slovakia vs. Ukraine: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Slovakia vs. Ukraine Odds

  • Slovakia to Win: +270
  • Ukraine to Win: +110
  • Draw: +230
  • Over 2.5 Goal Odds: +114
  • Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -138

Slovakia vs. Ukraine Analysis

Slovakia opened its tourney with one of the big upsets of Euro 2024 (so far), topping Belgium by a 1-0 score.

The underlying data, however, wasn't as kind to Slovakia. On expected goals (xG) -- according to FBRef's xG model -- Slovakia lost 1.6-0.6, and Belgium had two goals ruled out.

Ukraine fell 3-0 to Romania in a disappointing Round 1 result, but xG paints a better picture for Ukraine as they lost just 1.1-0.7 on xG.

Ukraine got here by surviving a difficult qualifying group that included England and Italy. They've mostly been in solid form prior to the loss to Romania.

In qualifying, Slovakia lost twice to a top-tier Portugal squad, but each defeat was by only a single goal. They won seven of their other eight matches, with the exception being a draw.

Slovakia vs. Ukraine Prediction

Opta's model views Ukraine as the favorite, giving them a 43.8% chance to win. Opta has a draw (27.8%) and a Slovakia win (29.0%) as being nearly equally likely to happen.

MasseyRatings also has Ukraine as the favorite, listing them at 42% likely to win.

While the models favor Ukraine, the Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook may be slightly overrating Ukraine's chances to win. Ukraine's +110 moneyline implies win odds of 47.6% -- higher than what either model has.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.