Euro 2024 England vs. Netherlands: Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Wednesday's Semifinal

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Euro 2024 England  vs. Netherlands: Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Wednesday's Semifinal

Euro 2024 is at the business end of the tournament, and the semifinals start on Tuesday. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Euro 2024 odds for each game.

At 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, England (fifth in the FIFA rankings) do battle with the Netherlands (seventh) in a semifinal matchup.

What should we expect from this match?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 England vs. Netherlands: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

England vs. Netherlands Odds

  • England to Win: +165
  • Netherlands to Win: +220
  • Draw: +175
  • Over 2.5 Goal Odds: +158
  • Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -194
  • England to Advance: -134
  • Netherlands to Advance: +110

England vs. Netherlands Best Bet

Memphis Depay 1+ Shot on Target (-130)

This match is a tough one to call, and I'm not seeing much value in the team-level markets. But I really like this player prop.

England's defense has struggled in the knockout rounds. They've given up a goal in each of their past two matches along with plenty of chances. Going by FBRef's expected goals (xG) data, the Three Lions permitted 2.2 xG to Slovakia in the Round of 16 and conceded 1.5 xG to Switzerland in the quarterfinals. And it's not like those two teams boast a lot of attacking talent.

The Netherlands definitely have attacking talent. They've scored at least twice in every Euro 2024 match but one (versus France), and Memphis Depay has been a big part of their attack.

Through five matches this tourney, Depay has taken a whopping 17 shots en route to totaling one goal and one assist. Due to a combination of poor finishing on his part and some bad luck, Depay has put only 3 of those 17 shots on target. But it's the volume I'm most interested in, and I think he's due for some positive regression in terms of turning more attempts into shots on target.

There's also a chance Depay is on penalties, which could give him an easy avenue to registering a shot on target. The Dutch haven't taken a penalty in this tourney, but Depay is one of four players who took a spot kick for them in Euro qualifying.

Taking on a slumping England D, Depay should be able to get a shot on goal, and I don't mind taking a flier on him to put 2+ shots on target at +430.

England vs. Netherlands Prediction

Opta's model sees this as a tight one, projecting England as a slight favorite. Opta gives England a 37.8% chance to win, compared to the Netherlands' win odds of 31.6%. A draw is 30.6% likely.

MasseyRatings has Netherlands as a slight favorite, handing the Dutch win odds of 36% while putting England's win odds at 35%.

The Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are right in line with Opta's model. England's +165 moneyline implies win odds of 37.7%.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.