Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Wednesday 6/26/24

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Wednesday 6/26/24

The 2024 UEFA European Football Championship -- also known as Euro 2024 -- is here, and we're already at the final round of group matches.

FanDuel Sportsbook's Euro 2024 odds offer a variety of ways to get in on the action, including betting lines for each match.

Let's take a look at the best bets for Wednesday.

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Betting Picks

Czechia vs. Turkey (3 p.m. ET)

Turkey Moneyline (+180)

Turkey (42nd in FIFA's World Rankings) conclude their group stage matches with a final day clash against the Czechia (34th).

Turkey only need a draw to advance and can't improve their standing in Group F even with a win. To accomplish that, Turkey could play for a draw, but that may be a dangerous decision against a Czechia side that can only advance with a win. Sitting back and inviting pressure could result in disaster for Turkey.

Czechia lost to Portugal 2-1 -- a fair result based on expected goals (1.9-0.4), per FBref. They tied 1-1 with Georgia but were very unlucky to do so; on xG, they won that match 3.0-1.1. Turkey lost 3-0 to Portugal but fared slightly better on xG (1.9-0.7). Against Georgia, they won 3-1 with a very similar xG score to Czechia's: 3.0-1.4.

At +180, Turkey's implied odds to win, according to the Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, sit at 35.7%. It projects to be a closely contested clash, and Opta's model and MasseyRatings' model see things differently. Opta's model hands Tukey win odds of 45.3% while MasseyRatings' lists Turkey as underdogs with win odds of 33% to Czechia's 39%.

Over the past year, Czechia has done well against lesser opposition but struggled against better opponents. Their only solid results came against Poland in qualifying -- one win and one draw. Turkey earned wins against Croatia and Wales and draws against Wales and Italy. On underlying metrics, they were slightly more impressive against Portugal and enter this game in the driver's seat ahead on points. I like them to take all three from this one.

Ukraine vs. Belgium (12 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-128)

With all four teams sitting on three points, Group E was already set for a frantic finish. That was taken up a notch when France surprisingly finished second in Group D on Tuesday. Now, the team that finishes second in Group E will have to face Les Bleus in the Round of 16. The incentive to win the group is extreamly high.

With head-to-head result as the first tiebreaker, Belgium can win the group with a win over Ukraine and either a draw between Romania and Slovakia or a Romania win. Ukraine will need to play this game on the front foot; their best path to the Round of 16 is with a win. They can qualify with a draw, as well, but it requires there to not be a draw between Romania and Slovakia.

With both teams incentivized to take all three points, I like siding with the over on 2.5 goals. Belgium is averaging 1.65 xG per match and facing a Ukraine said that has allowed four goals through two matches so far.

Ukraine may have a tougher time finding the back of the net; Belgium has held both their opponents so far to under 1.0 xG. That said, Ukraine scored against both England and Italy in qualifying and is averaging 1.1 xG per match so far in Germany.

The stage is set for an exciting and chaotic conclusion for Group E. If Ukraine fall behind, they will need to press forward to complete the comeback, which could open up additional opportunities for Belgium to capitalize.

Prop Bets

Romelu Lukaku to Score (+115): Through two matches, Lukaku has done basically everything but score. He has an assist, eight shots, five shots on target, and four chances created with 0.6 xG in each match. He has been in excellent form for both club and country over the past year and has the quality to convert on the high number of opportunities he is receiving.

Arda Guler to Score or Assist (+155): Guler, who has battled injuries throughout his young career, was a doubt for Turkey's second game but ended up coming off the bench and recording two shots in 20 minutes against Portugal. In the opener against Georgia he scored a goal and recorded 0.5 expected assists. Assuming he is fit enough to start, he has the quality to deliver against Czechia.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.