Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Tuesday 7/2/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Tuesday 7/2/24

The 2024 UEFA European Football Championship -- also known as Euro 2024 -- is here, and we're already at the final day of the Round of 16.

FanDuel Sportsbook's Euro 2024 odds offer a variety of ways to get in on the action, including betting lines for each match.

Let's take a look at the best bets for Tuesday.

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Betting Picks

Romania vs. Netherlands (12 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-114)

Through the weekend's matches, the Round of 16 has been mostly tight, low-scoring battles aside from Spain's demolition of Georgia. The ingredients are there for this match to be a high-scoring affair.

Both of these sides have done well in attack while also surrendering chances at the other end. Through three matches, the Netherlands have scored four times and given up four goals. Romania have netted four goals and conceded three.

The expected goals (xG) data backs that up. Per FBRef's xG model, Romania have an xG tally of 3.2 scored and 3.3 allowed while the Netherlands are at 3.7 scored and 3.6 conceded.

The Netherlands have the attacking upside to cash this on their own and are listed at -180 to go over 1.5 goals. With that said, we will likely need a goal from Romania for this bet to hit. They have amassed at least 0.9 xG in each match thus far despite playing in a fairly difficult group and are -1100 to score at least once.

Two good attacks. Two meh defenses. We should see goals in Tuesday's opener.

Austria vs. Turkey (3 p.m. ET)

Turkey Moneyline (+330)

Austria have been one of the biggest surprises of Euro 2024. Their relentless pressing style helped them notch six points in the group stage and best France for the top spot in Group D.

But the betting markets might be overvaluing them a bit for Tuesday's date with Turkey.

While the results have been there for Austria, the xG numbers aren't pretty. Through three matches, the Austrians have conceded 5.3 xG and created just 3.8 xG. Their -1.5 xG differential is tied for the sixth-worst clip among all teams in Euro 2024.

Turkey's xG numbers are better than Austria's as they've totaled 5.1 xG and given up 4.8 xG. A whopping 3.0 of Turkey's 5.1 xG created came against Georgia, one of the tourney's worst defensive teams, and that's likely why Turkey are such a sizable underdog.

This +330 number is just too big, though. The +330 odds imply win odds of 23.3%. MasseyRatings' model gives Turkey a 28% chance to win while Opta's model has Turkey's win odds at 29.8%.

If you want to play it safer, you can take Turkey to advance at +168, which includes Turkey winning in extra time or penalties.

Prop Bets

Memphis Depay to Score or Assist (-135): I'm bullish on the Netherlands on Tuesday, and as I mentioned above, they are -180 to score at least twice. There's a good chance Depay is a part of that.

Depay has been extremely active thus far, totaling nine shots, eight shot-creating actions and two key passes in the group stage. Two of the nine shots were on target, and he's scored once.

There's also a chance Memphis is on penalties, something that would obviously be a boost for this market. I don't mind his +140 anytime goal odds, either.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.