EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 37: Will Arsenal Win at Old Trafford?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 37: Will Arsenal Win at Old Trafford?

After a week full of exciting Champions League action, the final stretch of the EPL season continues with Matchweek 37 this weekend. The EPL title remains up for grabs.

Matchweek 37, which runs from Saturday to Monday and features 10 matches, is highlighted by two important fixtures in the title race -- Manchester City at Fulham and Arsenal at Manchester United.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 37

Arsenal at Manchester United (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Arsenal -1.5 (-108)

On Sunday, a Manchester United side that was just defeated 4-0 by Crystal Palace will host a motivated Arsenal side that needs a win to remain in the title race. Not only does Arsenal need a win, but they have every reason to run up the score, with goal differential still very relevant to their title chances.

After their shocking 4-3 win over Liverpool in the FA Cup Quarterfinals in mid March, United's already underwhelming season took a turn for the worse. In their seven matches since, they have four draws, two losses, and one win (vs. Sheffield United). To achieve even those results, they had to significantly overperform their expected goal metrics -- per FBRef -- with 13 goals scored from 10.0 xG. On xG, they lost five of those seven matches.

The one thing that has been consistent for United this season is their poor defending -- especially against elite opposition. In their EPL fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City this season, they have allowed an average of 3.1 xG per match. On the other end of the pitch, they generated just 0.7 xG per match in those games. United failed to reach 1.0 xG in any of their five matches against elite opposition this year.

Arsenal's title charge has been built on their defense. They are allowing the fewest goals/90 (0.75) and xG/90 (0.74) in the league. Given United's struggles against better opposition, scoring a single goal against this Arsenal defense would be an accomplishment -- United are listed at +170 to score no goals. United will have a difficult time continuing to overperform their xG numbers in this clash.

Even if Manchester United do score, Arsenal can still cover the 1.5-goal spread by scoring three goals of their own, something they have done in each of their last three matches and in 10 of their 16 EPL fixtures in 2024. United's xGD/90 at home this season (+0.15) ranks 16th. Arsenal leads the league in xGD/90 on the road (+0.96).

This is a clash between two teams at the tail end of two very different seasons, heading in opposite directions, with a large difference in both current form and motivation. I expect those differences to be on full display on Sunday and for Arsenal to win by at least two goals.

Crystal Palace at Wolves (10:00 a.m. ET Saturday)

Crystal Palace Moneyline (+140)

Much like Manchester United-Arsenal, this match also features two clubs that are in drastically different form.

Wolves have one win (vs. Luton) in their last eight matches. Crystal Palace are undefeated in their last five EPL fixtures, picking up wins over Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester United.

Wolves will be at home in this one, but that hasn't helped them much this season. Their xGD/90 at home (-0.35) ranks 17th. They are one of five clubs with a negative xGD/90 at home this term -- alongside Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, and West Ham. To say that isn't an ideal group to be a part of would be an understatement.

Crystal Palace's recent results have been helped by their overperformance on their xG metrics -- in their last five matches, they have 13 goals from 8.0 xG -- but their defense has been solid, as well. Excluding their match against an elite Liverpool attack, Palace have held their opponents to just 0.8 xG during their current unbeaten streak. After a bit of a slow start under new manager Oliver Glasner, who took over in Matchweek 26, Palace have started to hit their stride.

The elephant in the room here is Palace's away form, which has been horrendous. They have just one win in their last 12 road fixtures. Their xGD/90 on the road this season (-0.61) ranks 14th. That said, the aforementioned one away win was against Liverpool, and while they were fortunate to win 1-0, the underlying metrics were respectable -- 2.0 xG scored to 2.7 xG allowed. In the five away matches since Glasner took over, Palace has two losses, two draws, and a win -- not fantastic but a slight improvement.

Overall this season, Palace has been a better side than Wolves. Palace's xGD/90 (-0.17) is ahead of Wolves' (-0.44), and on current form, the gap between the two clubs is larger than that. I like Palace to maintain their momentum and take all three points on Saturday.

Player Props

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score (+105): Everton's matchup against Sheffield United comes at an excellent time for Calvert-Lewin. He has scored in two consecutive matches and four of his last fives appearances. He has a shot on goal in eight consecutive EPL fixtures and at least two shots taken in each of his last six. Nothing has changed with Sheffield United -- they remain the worst defense in the league and one of the worst ever in EPL history with 100 goals allowed, 22 more than the next-closest team.

Cole Palmer to Score (+140): After a three-match scoreless streak, Palmer got back on track with a goal against West Ham on Sunday. Palmer has been the brightest of bright spots in an otherwise forgettable season for Chelsea, and he is set up for success again this weekend. Nottingham Forest has just one clean sheet since Matchweek 11 and has conceded multiple goals in four of their last five. Palmer ranks second in goals (21) and third in goals/90 (0.80) this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.