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CasinoDornoch: Kentucky Derby Horse Odds, History and Prediction
The 150th Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and the field of 20 three-year-old horses is set.
Dornoch ended Kentucky Derby qualifying with 100 points, and now with the Road to the Kentucky Derby drawing ever closer to the 150th running, the Danny Gargan-trained horse looks to make history.
Dornoch Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Position
Dornoch's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 20-1 (+2000), tied for sixth-best in the field.
Dornoch drew post position 1.
Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Keith Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | Whit Beckman | Ben Curtis | 20-1 |
Dornoch Horse Trainer and Jockey
Danny Gargan horses have 431 wins in 2,019 career starts, and Society Man is also in the Kentucky Derby field under Gargan.
Jockey Luiz Saez has ranked top-five in wins in five straight years, via Equibase.
Saez rode Secret Oath to a 2022 Kentucky Oaks victory and Essential Quality to a Belmont Stakes win in 2021.
Dornoch Race History
Dornoch has posted Speed Scores (via Equibase) of 98 or higher in four straight races.
The Fountain of Youth (G2) win at Gulfstream Park in early March secured 50 qualifying points.
Date | Track | Race | Finish | Speed Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/6/2024 | Keeneland | Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) | 4 | 98 |
| 3/2/2024 | Gulfstream Park | Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2) | 1 | 102 |
| 12/2/2023 | Aqueduct | Remsen Stakes (Gr. 2) | 1 | 99 |
| 10/14/2023 | Keeneland | Maiden Special Weight | 1 | 99 |
| 8/26/2023 | Monmouth Park | Sapling Stakes (Listed) | 2 | 85 |
| 7/29/2023 | Saratoga | Maiden Special Weight | 2 | 83 |
Dornoch Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick
Dornoch, full brother of last year's Derby winner (Mage), has the third-most wins (3) of horses in the field, and his 94.3 Speed Score average is sixth in the field among 18 with Speed Score data.
The last winner from post 1 was Ferdinand (1986), and a 19.1% in-the-money rate from post 1 is 11th-highest of 20 positions since 1930.
Watch FanDuel TV's Christina Blacker analyze Dornoch below:
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