Clippers vs. Mavericks: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 6

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

The Los Angeles Clippers are looking to avoid being eliminated from the NBA playoffs on Friday in a Game 6 bout versus the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks cruised to a 123-93 victory in Game 5 -- easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites -- to secure a 3-2 lead in the series.

With Los Angeles playing without Kawhi Leonard, Dallas now has -1050 odds to win the series and the sixth-shortest odds to win the NBA championship (+1400). If the Clippers want to force a Game 7, they'll need Paul George and James Harden to perform when it matters most in a win-or-go-home matchup on the road.

Could the Kawhi Leonard-Paul George era in Los Angeles be coming to an end? Will the duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving take care of business at home to send the Clippers packing in the postseason?

Before Friday's pivotal contest, let's discuss the advanced stats and highlight the best bets for Game 6 of the first-round series between the Clippers and Mavericks.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Clippers-Mavericks Betting Odds

Date and Time: 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Mavericks -8.0 (-112)

Total: 208.5


  • Clippers: +280
  • Mavericks: -350

Clippers vs. Mavericks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

  • Los Angeles Clippers:
    • nERD: 61.6 (6th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 114.2 (21st)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.1 (17th)
    • Pace: 98.5 (23rd)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 38-44
  • Dallas Mavericks:
    • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.3 (6th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 116.7 (24th)
    • Pace: 96.9 (28th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34

Clippers vs. Mavericks Best Bet

Mavericks -8.0 (-112)

The wind has somewhat been taken out of the sails for the Clippers given the news that Leonard will be sidelined for Game 6. Both Harden and George had forgettable performances in Game 5, combining to shoot 6-for-25 to total just 22 points in the team's 30-point defeat at home.

While Harden and George are capable of bouncing back, it's tough to envision a scenario where the Clippers keep the series alive as Dallas may have another gear in them if Doncic's shooting numbers get back to their usual level.

Even though Doncic is averaging a robust 30.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game, the dynamic guard hasn't been efficient in the series thus far. Entering Game 6, Doncic has just a 47.6% effective field-goal percentage and is knocking down only 26.3% of his three-pointers. This comes after Doncic tallied career-best marks in effective field-goal percentage (57.3%) and three-point percentage (38.2%) during the regular season.

Upon returning home, Doncic is primed for an explosive outing to advance to the next round of the postseason. Aside from being around league-average in terms of defensive three-point rate (37.8%), the Clippers allow the 12th-highest three-point percentage (36.5%).

Irving has also been a formidable sidekick for Doncic in this series -- producing 25.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game on an efficient 59.2% effective field-goal percentage and 42.5% three-point percentage. Once Doncic's shots start falling more, the Clippers could have no answers to slowing down him and Kyrie, potentially putting the Clips in a hole early in Friday's contest.

When it comes to covering the spread, Dallas is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last four games of the series. In the 17 total games that Kawhi has missed in the regular season and the playoffs, Los Angeles has lost by 11-plus points in six of those games -- including the 30-point blowout loss in Game 5 at home.

Clippers vs. Mavericks Prop Bet

Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130)

While Luka's props are certainly enticing in a potential closeout game at home, I'll be taking Irving to tally five-plus rebounds for the Mavericks on Friday.

For the series, Irving is logging 5.6 rebounds per game, which is tied -- with Dereck Lively -- for the second-most on the team. The skillful guard has posted six-plus rebounds in three games this series while grabbing four rebounds in the other two games.

Given the shooting woes we saw from George and Harden in Game 5, we could see more rebound opportunities for Irving in Game 6.

At this point of the series, Irving is registering the fourth-most rebound chances per game (9.2) on the Mavericks. Additionally, Irving is turning 60.9% of his rebound chances into rebounds, giving him the 10th-best postseason rate among guards who are averaging 30-plus minutes per game in the playoffs.

On top of that, Irving posted an average of 5.9 rebounds per game at home this year compared to 4.1 rebounds per game on the road. With Irving and the Mavericks hoping to be the team that faces the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, I expect Irving to be active on the glass in Game 6.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.