Champions League Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/5/24: Will Lazio Eliminate Bayern Munich?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Champions League Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/5/24: Will Lazio Eliminate Bayern Munich?

We have the return legs for the Champions League Round of 16 on Tuesday, with two matches that should be fun to watch.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

Champions League Betting: 3/5/24

Lazio at Bayern Munich (3PM ET)

Lazio to Advance (+220)

The first leg between these teams finished 1-0 to Lazio in Italy three weeks ago, but the odds still heavily favor Bayern Munich to get out of this round.

Lazio haven't been too successful in Serie A this season. They are currently ninth in the table, with their expected goal (xG) differential also being ninth, according to FBRef's xG model.

They were able to win the xG battle in the first leg, 1.6-1.1. It's never easy to go up against Bayern, especially in Germany, but they may be more vulnerable at this point than usual.

The first leg occurred during the middle of a three-game losing streak for Bayern. This was the first time they've lost three in a row since 2015. Things are in a bit of disarray, with it being announced that manager Thomas Tuchel will lose his job after the season.

Bayern will be without defender Dayot Upamecano, who was sent off toward the end of the first leg. He has been a starting center-back this campaign, so not having him available is a blow.

We still know that Bayern are a better team, but we're getting such a good number -- +220 -- on a team with a one-goal advantage. Bayern failed to register a shot on target in the first leg, and with their recent form, they don't seem like a sure thing to advance from this tie.

Paris St. Germain at Real Sociedad (3PM ET)

Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

The second match also features a huge club going up against a team that is in the middle of the table in their own domestic league.

Unlike the huge club from our first match, Paris St. Germain were able to win the first leg, 2-0. That match was at home for PSG, and they'll be on the road for Tuesday's game.

The French champions haven't lost a match in any competition since November 7th. They haven't conceded more than one goal in a match since January 28th.

It's unlikely that Real Sociedad will be the team that ends PSG's unbeaten run. Sociedad are seventh in La Liga and have won just once across their last nine games.

More importantly for this bet, Sociedad are ninth in xG created in Spain's top flight. They are, however, fairly good at defending, conceding the fifth-fewest xG.

With a 2-0 advantage, PSG aren't under any pressure to try to go all out for goals. That falls on Sociedad's shoulders, and they don't seem capable of producing goals in this one.

Player Props

Kylian Mbappe to Have 1+ Shots on Target in First Half (-120): PSG may not be too aggressive in attack, but that won't stop Kylian Mbappe from doing his thing.

Mbappe scored in the first leg and had seven shots, with four being on target. He's tied for second in shots on target per 90 minutes across Europe's big five leagues.

I feel good about him getting at least one shot on target in the first half, and I think that's the way to play this as he may be substituted in the second half if the game is out of hand.

Alessio Romagnoli to Be Booked (+190): With Lazio likely trying to hold on to a lead away from home, if they have an advantage in the second half, we can expect some gamesmanship from them in an effort to get across the line.

That should mean we see a few -- if not several -- players pick up bookings. We're going to specifically target Romagnoli, because he plays center-back and has five yellow cards in 18 Serie A starts this season.

He offers the best value on Lazio in the yellow-card market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.