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CasinoCatching Freedom: Kentucky Derby Horse Odds, History and Prediction
The 150th Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and the field of 20 three-year-old horses is set.
Catching Freedom racked up 125 qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Catching Freedom Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Position
Catching Freedom's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 8-1 (+800), third-best in the field.
Catching Freedom drew post position 4.
Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Keith Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | Whit Beckman | Ben Curtis | 20-1 |
Catching Freedom Horse Trainer and Jockey
Trainer Brad Cox is only years removed from a great 2021 Triple Crown. Mandaloun won the Kentucky Derby (after a DQ), and Essential Quality won the Belmont Stakes.
Cox also has Just A Touch (10-1) in the field.
Flavien Prat rode Catching Freedom to a Louisiana Derby win in late March. Prat also has wins at the Kentucky Derby in 2019 (Country House; after a DQ) and the Preakness Stakes in 2021 (Rombauer).
Catching Freedom Race History
Catching Freedom has three wins in five starts and has posted three straight Speed Scores (via Equibase) of 96 or higher but has not yet hit 100.
Date | Track | Race | Finish | Speed Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/23/2024 | Fair Grounds | Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2) | 1 | 98 |
| 2/17/2024 | Fair Grounds | Risen Star Stakes (Gr. 2) | 3 | 96 |
| 1/1/2024 | Oaklawn Park | Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed) | 1 | 97 |
| 11/9/2023 | Churchill Downs | Allowance Optional Claiming | 4 | 88 |
| 10/1/2023 | Churchill Downs | Maiden Special Weight | 1 | 85 |
Catching Freedom Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick
Catching Freedom has elite connections but slightly concerning Speed Scores relative to the other favorites. However, he has an average Speed Score of 97.0 in his last three starts.
Post 4 has not been the most fruitful starting position. Post 4 has resulted in five Derby winners (5.3%), the 12th-highest frequency.
Still, an 8-1 morning line means Catching Freedom has what it takes to net the win.
Watch FanDuel TV's Christina Blacker analyze Catching Freedom below:
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