Can the Rockies Avoid 100 Losses in 2024?

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
Can the Rockies Avoid 100 Losses in 2024?

Projected to be one of the two worst teams in baseball, the Colorado Rockies aren't exactly on anyone's shortlist to win this year's Fall Classic, their own division, or...well...anything.

Much to the dismay of ownership that infamously used injuries as an excuse for just one winning season since the end of 2010, Colorado broke the 100-loss mark for the first time in club history during 2023, losing 103 games and holding the third-worst record in all of baseball. Their 59-103 mark was worst in the National League, too. Without many acceptable excuses, the team was simply horrible.

What is the Colorado Rockies' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Rockies' win total is listed at 59.5 games.

Let's dig into what we can expect from Colorado this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Colorado Rockies Win Total Odds

Colorado Rockies Over/Under 59.5 Wins

  • Over: -115
  • Under: -105

Why the Rockies Could Win Over 59.5 Games (-115)

Here's where I'd normally discuss optimism on the basis of offseason changes, but despite such a dismal prior campaign, the Rockies basically made none.

Right-hander Dakota Hudson, catcher Jacob Stallings, and outfielder Bradley Zimmer are the notable changes to the projected Opening Day roster, and none has displayed an extended period as a quality MLB starter.

The real case for the Rox comes from pre-existing talent staying healthy to form a lineup that ranks among baseball's best even when adjusted for Coors Field's astronomic park factor. Top prospects Ezequiel Tovar, Nolan Jones, and former first-round pick Zac Veen could join a slew of former All-Stars that, conceptually, should still be close to their prime like Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, and Elias Diaz. Infielders Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon aren't considered slouches by any means, either.

At the dish, the Rockies can match most NL foes outside of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves -- especially in their ballpark -- if things are gelling.

Plus, the Rockies' bullpen at least has building blocks to finish games the offense starts. Righty Tyler Kinley has a 2.91 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2022 before an injury-plagued 2023, Jake Bird had a team-best 3.85 SIERA a season ago, and closer Justin Lawrence was serviceable enough with a 3.72 ERA navigating Coors half of the time. 2022 closer Daniel Bard should also return to this trio at some point despite a freak injury over the offseason.

The good news about a mark as low as 59.5 is that the Rockies could lose 100 games and still cash your ticket. I'm leaning on this side due to the offensive firepower and variance that Coors Field can create, and FanGraphs agrees. They're projecting Colorado for 64 wins this season.

Why the Rockies Could Win Under 59.5 Games (-105)

The red flag you'll have to overlook to consider the over is a nightmarish pitching rotation from start to finish.

Opening Day starter Kyle Freeland posted a 5.24 SIERA a year ago, and the club is choosing him over the aforementioned Hudson (5.36 SIERA in 2023), Cal Quantrill (5.50), Ryan Feltner (5.54), and Austin Gomber (5.24). If any of these guys was a projected fifth starter on a playoff contender, you'd be concerned about them. This is a whole rotation full of them. The most reliable arm on the roster, German Marquez, will be on the shelf most of the season -- especially if it becomes a lost one.

Even ambitiously projecting two for sub-5.00 SIERAs, you'd be left with three problematic starters. Plus, as decent as the back half of the bullpen looks, this is still FanGraphs' 29th-best projected bullpen overall due to some pretty troubling names in the middle and long relief departments.

Even if the Rockies do surpass all pitching expectations, this was a lineup that badly suffered due to injuries last year. Bryant, seemingly coasting through his $182 million contract, played just 80 games in 2023. Brendan Rodgers played just 46, and Charlie Blackmon managed just 96 entering his age-37 season. Significant injuries to those three, Jones, or Tovar could put this lineup at the very bottom of the league once again.

There's also an underlying sentiment around this team that coincides with last year's "injuries". Ownership continues to not make any sort of shifts toward winning, and the players are human beings that know that. The team's best veteran players completely quitting on a lost year could tank what seems to be an easy-to-achieve win total on the surface.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.