Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

This week's PGA Tour event isn't quite headlined by top-flight golfers. The only golfers in the top-50 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) in the field are Lucas Glover (31st) and Adam Scott (45th).

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Port Royal Golf Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 6,828 yards (around 490 yards shorter than the average par 71)
• Average Green Size: 8,000 square feet (133% vs. PGA Tour average)
• Green Type: Bermuda
• Recent Winning Scores: -19, -15, -15, -24
• Recent Cut Lines: -6, E, +1, -2

Port Royal Golf Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Birdie or Better Rate

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event. (Golfers with at least 0.10% win odds shown.)

Value is tough this week, according to the model.

Doug Ghim (+3000) is appealing again for me. He's a good tee-to-green player and can go low at this type of setup. His odds are shortening.

Dylan Wu (+5000) has top-15 irons and putting over the past 50 rounds, which is a great recipe for a birdie-centric event.

Amateur Nicholas Dunlap (+9000) is 14th in datagolf's true strokes gained metric over the past 50 rounds and is getting a lot of attention. The model still likes him enough, but his odds have really shortened from the +17000 range.

Andrew Novak (+8000) and Brandon Wu (+4500) deserve another look during a week where we can divvy up units and go with a few extra names.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS Studs

Adam Scott ($12,000 | +1400)

There are no sure things this week. No true studs. So we can get a bit freer with our priority plays. With that in mind, Adam Scott is still the best process play.

Scott's irons can spike at a rate that really puts him above the rest of the field in win odds (5.5% in my model), and he has two top-10s in his past five starts. He also can get the putter flowing.

Alex Smalley ($10,500 | +2200)

Smalley is often a target of mine. He's a great iron player -- but a weak putter. This week at such an easy setup, he'll need to make putts, yet the low-scoring nature also benefits iron players.

He's finished T12 and T11 at this event the past two years.

Others to Consider:

• Thomas Detry ($11,100 | +2000)
• Alex Noren ($10,800 | +2200)
• Mark Hubbard ($10,300 | +2800)

Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS Mid-Range Plays

Davis Riley ($9,900 | +3500)

Riley finished T7 here in his lone start in 2022, and he enters with top-12 irons and a top-20 overall tee-to-green game while having some weak around-the-green numbers.

Although Riley's form is spotty (as is the case for most of the field), the irons and distance profile make for an upside recipe.

Mattias Schmidt ($9,300 | +5500)

Schmidt was T38 last week at the World Wide Technology Championship after a solo second at the Andalucia Masters.

He has gained strokes from approach play in four straight measured events and in six of his past seven. He ultimately ranks 23rd in the field in strokes gained: approach. In fact, he's top-35 in off-the-tee, approach, and putting. But he's 114th around the green.

Others to Consider:

• Brandon Wu ($9,700 | +4500)
• Dylan Wu ($9,700 | +5000)
• Vincent Whaley ($9,500 | +5500)

Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS Value Plays

Justin Lower ($9,000 | +6500)

Lower's a good long-term iron player relative to this field (11th) and has top-20 putting splits over the past 50 rounds, as well.

The driver and wedges can lose him strokes, though.

With that said, Lower has gained strokes from approach play in four of his past five measured events and has finished T17 and T8 at Port Royal in his two starts.

Austin Smotherman ($8,600 | +8000)

Smotherman's recent results don't look like much (T27, cut, cut, T35, and T23), but in a field like this, that works.

Smotherman also rates out 46th in ball-striking and is 25th in putting in the field over the past 50 rounds, so that's an upside profile. He finished T23 here last year after missing the cut in 2022.

Others to Consider:

• Andrew Novak ($9,000 | +8000)
• Marty Dou ($8,800 | +6500)
• Nicholas Dunlap ($7,800 | +9000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.