Bill Simmons' Best Bets: NBA Win Total Over-Unders for the 2025-26 Season

The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares his nine favorite NBA win totals ahead of the 2025-26 season on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let's take a closer look at each of Simmons' favorite picks.

Milwaukee Bucks Over 42.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 48-34

According to Simmons, the Milwaukee Bucks have a lot going for them: namely roster depth, great shooting splits, and Giannis Antetokounmpo ("the best player in the [Eastern] Conference").

Simmons is also high on a motivated Myles Turner to replace Brook Lopez in the frontcourt as well as the projected impact from other key additions, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris.

Though trade rumors exist around Antetokounmpo, Simmons anticipates Giannis to finish the season with Milwaukee.

Cleveland Cavaliers Over 56.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 64-18

Simmons is also high on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are fresh off a 64-18 season.

Last year, Cleveland had an expected win-loss record of 62-20 after posting a net rating of +9.2 (third-best in the league), so while they may not have played at a 64-win level, they were an elite team in the NBA.

Simmons noted that, while there's no real flexibility with this roster in terms of adding pieces, he is optimistic on the breakout potential of Evan Mobley.

Further, the downgrade to other top teams in the Eastern Conference has Simmons backing an over for Cleveland.

Sacramento Kings Under 35.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 40-42

Simmons' preview of the Sacramento Kings featured discourse about some typical Sacramento Kings peculiarities, and beyond that, the roster is entering 2025-26 with a lot of question marks.

That includes an injury to Keegan Murray on what is already -- to Simmons -- one of the least complete rosters in the NBA.

Simmons is on a "hard under" for the Kings' win total in 2025-26.

Dallas Mavericks Over 40.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 39-43

The Dallas Mavericks are primed for a strong season, per Simmons, who gives number-one overall pick Cooper Flagg a chance to be "the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis."

The team lost Spencer Dinwiddie but added D'Angelo Russell, and with Kyrie Irving out indefinitely to start the year, the rotation will skew big for most of the season.

A lot will hinge on Davis' health this year, but Simmons is confident in the depth and length this team can throw at teams night in and night out all season long.

Brooklyn Nets Under 19.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 26-56

Simmons' straightforward case for the Brooklyn Nets to go under 19.5 wins is heavily influenced by a roster that is full of young guards and a lot of players who are ball-handlers.

With simply too many question marks on how this team will gel, Simmons is expecting another long season for the Nets, the youngest roster in the league.

Denver Nuggets Over 53.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 50-32

With a potential legacy-defining season ahead for Nikola Jokic, Simmons is high on the Denver Nuggets.

When talking about the upcoming season, Simmons pointed out that this could be the team's best roster since drafting Jokic, specifically calling out the additions of Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Not only that, but Simmons is keen on the plug-and-play nature of the team's bench when spelling the starters, noting that the offense can run through Valanciunas for spurts when Jokic is on the bench.

San Antonio Spurs Over 43.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 34-48

The San Antonio Spurs would need to be 10 wins better than they were in 2024-25, but Simmons believes they can do it -- especially with a Year Three leap from Victor Wembanyama.

When previewing the team's upcoming season, Simmons noted the Year Three breakout seasons from Tim Duncan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Dave Cowens, Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, Moses Malone, and Yao Ming.

The key additions of Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk in the frontcourt can bolster a roster that was 23rd in rebounding rate a year ago.

Additionally, the offensive impact from number-two overall pick Dylan Harper should help boost a team that was just 19th in offensive rating in 2024-25.

Oklahoma City Thunder Over 62.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 68-14

The 2024-25 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder have a high win total set for the upcoming season, but this team just won 68 games a year ago and has a largely unchanged roster to run it back in 2025-26.

Though it's a lofty win total, Simmons noted the Thunder's +12.7 net rating from last season -- an all-time best in NBA history -- as well as an incredibly deep bench largely carrying over for continued success this year.

With expectations that Jalen Williams and/or Chet Holmgren could make the leap this season, Simmons also drew comparisons to another young core: the 1992 Chicago Bulls, who won 67 games after a championship season.

Washington Wizards Under 20.5 Wins

Current Odds:

2024-25 Record: 18-64

Simmons' Washington Wizards preview begins with a laundry list of personnel changes from last season's 18-win team, a squad that actually overperformed an expected win-loss record of 15-67.

Despite appreciating the assets on the roster, Simmons is skeptical of how the pieces fit together in Washington, the league's third-youngest roster.

Have a hunch on who's going far this year? There's still time get your Futures bets in before the season begins.

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