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CasinoAustralian Grand Prix Win Simulations: Sorting Through the Mid-Pack
Going into Formula 1's third race of the 2024 season, there's still plenty left to be unveiled.
Not at the front, obviously. There, we know it's Red Bull's play place.
But for the back half of the field, we still have plenty of questions.
The finishing order of that bunch was dictated by strategy in each of the first two races. There was tire strategy in the first race, and then Haas used teamwork to lock up a point in Saudi Arabia.
In other words, we don't have a true, true read on the hierarchy down there, and that could create value in the betting markets.
Let's look at what my model has simmed out prior to practice and qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix.
Driver | Sim Win | Podium | T6 | T10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 73.2% | 86.9% | 87.0% | 87.0% |
| Sergio Perez | 10.9% | 71.1% | 85.8% | 86.2% |
| Charles Leclerc | 6.2% | 45.4% | 81.5% | 86.1% |
| Carlos Sainz | 4.6% | 36.0% | 77.4% | 85.8% |
| Lando Norris | 1.5% | 16.9% | 58.4% | 84.8% |
| Oscar Piastri | 1.1% | 13.2% | 50.9% | 82.0% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.9% | 11.4% | 47.5% | 81.5% |
If you look at FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds, they have a clear view of the tiers back here: it's Alexander Albon, RB, Haas, and then a massive gap down to everybody else. Based on qualifying, that hierarchy is correct. But I have a bit more volatility baked in.
That leads to some value on T10 markets for Esteban Ocon (+850), Pierre Gasly (+850), Valtteri Bottas (+850), and Zhou Guanyu (+1100). I'm most intrigued by Zhou, given he has had enough pace to hold his track position when granted it the first two races, but I'm not itching to bet any of this now.
Those four cars above have had hideous pace in qualifying. That means it's very likely we can wait and get better value on them later in the weekend once their odds lengthen post-qualifying.
Additionally, practice could reveal that these teams are truly as dreadful as the market says, in which case we wouldn't want to bet them, anyway. Buying time here isn't a bad thing.
Zhou is the one I'd have the most interest in betting now, but just overall, it's not a bad week to wait and see if there's a level of overconfidence on the ranking of the back five teams.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.