AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will look differently this week compared to past years.

It's an 80-golfer, no-cut event, and there are just two courses in the rotation: Pebble Beach Golf Links (naturally) and Spyglass Hill.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Event Info

• Recent Winning Scores: -18, -19, -18, -19, -19
• Recent Cut Lines: E, -4, -1, -3, -2

Pebble Beach Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 6,972 yards (around 400 yards shorter than the average par 72)
• Average Fairway Width: 41.2 yards (78th of 86 courses)
• Average Green Size: 3,500 square feet (smallest on Tour)
• Green Type: Poa
• Stimpmeter: 10.5

Spyglass Hill Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,041 yards (around 350 yards shorter than the average par 72)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small)
• Green Type: Poa

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Putting from 5 to 15 Feet
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Driving Accuracy

With small greens, there's no way around needing to hit irons well, or else you'll be missing out on too many birdie opportunities, which are needed in order to post a winning-level score at this setup.

It's not a complete birdie-fest, of course, but the winner won't end up around even par, either.

Best Golfers at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this event, which includes rounds at Monterey Peninsula.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Picks and Daily Fantasy Targets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds and/or their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Picks

Scottie Scheffler

To Win (+800)

Scheffler's game is so consistent that it's kind of incredible. Part of that consistency is losing strokes putting, which he has done in seven of his past eight starts.

In the one event where he has gained strokes putting, he won (the Hero World Challenge).

Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained: off the tee, approach, and around the green. He's finished top-five in 11 of his past 15 starts.

Collin Morikawa

To Win (+2000)

To Finish Top 10 (+200)

Morikawa is coming off of a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open while having a bad putting week, but he was also able to finish T5 at The Sentry while losing on the greens.

He's third in the field in strokes gained: approach and fifth overall. He also benefits at a setup that doesn't demand distance. He's 5th in accuracy and 45th in distance.

Tommy Fleetwood

To Win (+3500)

To Finish Top 10 (+300)

Fleetwood sits top-17 in all three tee-to-green stats over the past 50 rounds and is still 35th in putting in that split.

He's golfing really well in January, including winning the Dubai Invitational and then following it up with a T14 at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Russell Henley

To Finish Top 20 (+160)

Henley has finished top-25 in 10 of his past 13 starts and top-10 in 4 of those 13. He has top-10 irons and top-5 accuracy off the tee, making this a good fit for him this week.

Stephan Jaeger

To Finish Top 20 (+220)

Jaeger is coming off of a top-three last week in his second straight stripe show with his irons. He finished 9th in strokes gained: tee to green (7th in approach, specifically) but was 62nd among cut-makers in putting.

Jaeger's putting from 5 to 15 feet last season was about a full percentage point above the PGA Tour average.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Daily Fantasy Studs

Scottie Scheffler ($12,000 | +800)

As laid out already, Scheffler is the top guy in all three tee-to-green stats over the past 50 rounds, and to start 2024's season, he ranks 58th in putting from 5 to 15 feet, which is going to be one of the most crucial stats I track all year as we try to see if he can improve his putting baseline for real.

Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both elite anchor plays, but I'm siding with Scheffler, who has the tee-to-green edge.

Collin Morikawa ($10,900 | +2000)

Morikawa fits Pebble Beach (and Spyglass Hill) in the sense that he's accurate (fifth in the field this week) and can hit small greens (third in strokes gained: approach).

His putting splits are worrisome, so that's something to monitor. However, the sub-$11,000 salary helps out a lot, given his high win equity.

Others to Consider:

• Rory McIlroy ($12,200 | +750)
• Xander Schauffele ($11,600 | +1200)
• Sungjae Im ($10,200 | +4000)

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Daily Fantasy Mid-Range Plays

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900 | +3500)

Fleetwood's seventh in the field in strokes gained: tee to green and fifth in accuracy, giving him a prototypical build for Pebble Beach. The putting (35th in strokes gained) is supported by top-15 numbers from 5 to 15 feet.

J.T. Poston ($9,400 | +5000)

Poston actually leads this field in strokes gained: approach through putting, which means that downplaying driver really elevates him.

Downplaying distance is something we can do this week at these courses.

Poston has three top-15 finishes in three January starts so far, and his great putting recently is supported by good splits.

Others to Consider:

• Russell Henley ($9,800 | +5500)
• Byeong Hun An ($9,700 | +4000)
• Beau Hossler ($9,500 | +6000)
• Corey Conners ($9,100 | +11000)

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Daily Fantasy Values

Stephan Jaeger ($8,100 | +8000)

Jaeger will probably be a popular value play this week, but it makes sense why. He finished T3 last week at Torrey Pines and is actually 19th in strokes gained: tee to green among this field.

Si Woo Kim ($8,900 | +10000)

Kim's driving accuracy (1st) is paired with some bad putting (77th) over the past 50 rounds, but his splits from 5 to 15 feet were just below average last season.

Kim's tee-to-green numbers are generally good enough for him to contend for a top-25 even when not putting well. He's done just that at The Sentry and The American Express this year.

Others to Consider:

• Sepp Straka ($8,600 | +11000)
• Harris English ($8,500 | +11000)
• Adam Hadwin ($8,300 | +10000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.