AL Reliever of the Year Odds: Mason Miller, Emmanuel Clase Out in Front

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

We're a third of the way through the 2024 MLB season, and award races are heating up.

A lot can change over the next few months, but the AL Reliver of the Year odds has quickly become a three-man race.

Let's dive into the MLB odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and break down the top contenders for AL Reliever of the Year.

Odds as of May 30th and are subject to change after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

AL Reliever of the Year Odds

AL Reliever of the Year
Mason Miller-280
Emmanuel Clase+190
Clay Holmes+400
Andres Munoz+5000
Josh Hader+7500
Jason Foley+7500
Kenley Jansen+8000
View Full Table

Mason Miller, Athletics (-110)

Not only is Mason Miller the early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, he's currently a -110 favorite to win AL Reliever of the Year.

After missing four months in his debut 2023 season due to injury, the Oakland Athletics transitioned Miller from a starter to full-time relief.

The early results have been nothing short of exceptional.

Through 24 innings (entering Thursday), Miller has a 1.88 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He's registered a downright silly 52.8% K rate, levied by his 21.3% swinging-strike rate. He has yet to blow a save this season, and his 11 saves are tied for fourth in the American League.

And yet, those numbers actually undersell how dominant Miller has been. His 0.09 FIP is on pace to shatter the previous MLB record, and that's backed up by a 0.79 xFIP and 0.88 SIERA. Miller leads all relivers in Stuff+ and owns Statcast's third-best fastball.

As is the case with any pitcher, injury is a concern. But he's shown no signs of breaking down yet, and the A's appear set on keeping him in the 'pen.

The only real downside with Miller is his lack of saves. Oakland has the sixth-worst record in the league, and that's led to the seventh-fewest save opportunities. Still, if Miller maintains this level of dominance, it's hard to envision anyone passing him for the award.

Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (+190)

Emmanuel Clase won AL Reliver of the Year in 2022, so it's no surprise to see him in contention this season.

Clase has bounced back from a down year in 2023 and has so far cooked up a 0.33 ERA and 0.62 WHIP through 27.1 innings. He's taken advantage of the Cleveland Guardians having the second-most save opportunities in baseball to record an AL-best 17 saves. Clase has blown three saves, but the chances should continue to come for the team with the shortest odds to win the AL Central.

Clase hasn't been as dominant as Miller has been, but he's not far off. Among relievers, Clase has the sixth-best clips in both FIP (1.56) and xFIP (2.38) to go along with the seventh-best SIERA (2.09). His K rate is back up to 26.5% this season, and he's lowered his walk rate to a career-low 2.0%.

His track record makes him hard to ignore at +190 odds given how well he's pitched this season. Clase has thrown at least 69 innings each of the past three seasons, exceeding 40 saves in both 2022 and 2023.

Considering how well the Guardians have played this season, it wouldn't surprise anyone if Clase lead the league in saves. If he can maintain this level of effectiveness, he'll be in contention all season to win AL Reliever of the Year.

Clay Holmes, Yankees (+400)

Clay Holmes is on the podium as of May 30th. He has the third-best odds to win AL Reliever of the Year (+400), and there appears to be a monumental gap between these top three and the rest. Holmes is the only other pitcher with odds shorter than 50 to 1 to win the award.

After racking up 20 and 24 saves the last two seasons, Holmes has taken full advantage of the New York Yankees' closer role. He already has 16 saves (second in the AL) and sports a 1.48 ERA through 24 1/3 innings.

Holmes' K rate is down a tad from 2023 (27.1% to 25.0%), but he's upped his ground-ball rate to 71.0% and has cut his hard-hit rate to 37.7%.

Among relivers, Holmes ranks 15th in FIP (2.10), 19th in xFIP (2.68), and 9th in SIERA (2.20).

Holmes has benefited greatly from the Yankees' early success. The Bronx Bombers lead the league in save opportunities -- something that should continue considering they have the best record in the American League and -250 odds to win the AL East.

Though he's not been as flashy as Miller or Clase, Holmes should have ample opportunities to rack up saves for the Yanks. That's a role that has led to two Yankees winning this award since its inception in 2014, and it makes him an intriguing dark horse at +400 odds.

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