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CasinoAdjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Wild Card Weekend's Fastest Games
Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams, but you'll often find some flawed ways of analyzing such data.
Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.
Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.
These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that.
This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).
Here are the results through Week 18.
NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation
This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.
Pass/Run Plays Only | Plays/G | Rank | Adj Pace | Rank | Pass% + PROE | Rank | Pass Rate OE | Rank | Non-2MD No Huddle% | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 69.5 | 1 | 28.0 | 4 | 53.0% | 22 | -3.7% | 23 | 5.1% | 24 |
| HOU | 63.9 | 14 | 28.0 | 5 | 56.4% | 14 | -2.6% | 19 | 7.9% | 15 |
| DET | 66.2 | 2 | 28.3 | 8 | 53.0% | 23 | -3.9% | 25 | 4.4% | 25 |
| PHI | 66.0 | 3 | 28.5 | 14 | 53.5% | 21 | -1.2% | 14 | 17.3% | 2 |
| LA | 65.0 | 9 | 28.7 | 17 | 53.7% | 20 | -2.9% | 21 | 9.7% | 10 |
| KC | 62.7 | 20 | 28.8 | 18 | 69.4% | 3 | 6.6% | 1 | 2.1% | 31 |
| TB | 61.0 | 25 | 28.8 | 19 | 57.5% | 12 | -1.8% | 15 | 6.7% | 18 |
| 63.3 | 28.6 | 56.5% | -1.6% | 8.1% |
NFL Week 18 Pace and Pass Rate Preview
Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.
Matchup Averages | Pace | Rank | Pass% + PROE | Rank | Away Pace | Home Pace | Away Pass%+ | Home Pass%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOU | 28.0 | 1 | 54.7% | 4 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 53.0% | 56.4% |
| LA@DET | 28.5 | 2 | 53.4% | 5 | 28.7 | 28.3 | 53.7% | 53.0% |
| PHI@TB | 28.6 | 3 | 55.5% | 3 | 28.5 | 28.8 | 53.5% | 57.5% |
| GB@DAL | 28.9 | 4 | 60.8% | 2 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 59.0% | 62.6% |
| MIA@KC | 29.0 | 5 | 63.0% | 1 | 29.1 | 28.8 | 56.6% | 69.4% |
| PIT@BUF | 29.1 | 6 | 51.5% | 6 | 29.3 | 28.9 | 47.5% | 55.4% |
Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.