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Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 3's Fastest Games

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Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 3's Fastest Games

  • Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
  • Pace Improved in Week 2: After a slow start in Week 1, league-wide pace trends ticked up in Week 2.
  • The Cowboys, Lions, and Titans all stood out as faster offenses in Week 2 than in Week 1.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

Pass/Run Plays Only
Plays/G
Rank
Adj Pace
Rank
Pass% + PROE
Rank
Pass Rate OE
Rank
Non-2MD No Huddle%
Rank
NO67.0626.2155.5%19-5.7%2726.9%2
DAL69.0328.0261.8%14-1.9%228.0%16
WAS63.01328.0365.7%103.8%863.5%1
SEA56.52229.5443.6%28-7.7%303.5%27
CHI63.51029.8557.6%17-0.6%1911.8%6
NYJ54.52629.9630.0%32-14.9%3210.1%10
GB53.52830.0751.0%25-0.4%176.5%18

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Notes After Week 2

  • Pace was a bit improved in Week 2 (an average adjusted seconds per play from 30.8 to 30.5 and an increase of plays per game from 60.7 to 61.6).
  • After playing uptempo the past few years, the Dallas Cowboys led in pace in Week 2 after ranking 13th in Week 1.
  • The Detroit Lions also increased pace (from 27th to 6th), and the Tennessee Titans improved from 31st to 8th.
  • Notably, after ranking 3rd in pace through Week 1, the New England Patriots played down in pace against the Miami Dolphins. New England was last in adjusted pace in Week 2 and ran just 52 pass plus rush plays.

NFL Week 3 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

Matchup Averages
Pace
Rank
Pass% + PROE
Rank
Away Pace
Home Pace
Away Pass%+
Home Pass%+
NO@SEA27.9149.6%1326.229.555.5%43.6%
DAL@CHI28.9259.7%728.029.861.8%57.6%
LV@WAS29.1369.4%230.328.073.2%65.7%
NYJ@TB30.2445.9%1629.930.430.0%61.7%
DEN@LAC30.3568.0%330.030.562.3%73.7%
GB@CLE30.5659.9%630.031.051.0%68.9%
KC@NYG30.8770.8%130.431.169.9%71.7%

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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