5 Risky Players for Fantasy Football in 2025

Fantasy football is a game of skill. As with most of those, great chances can come with great rewards.

As you're progressing through your draft, it'll become apparent which players your leaguemates just don't want to bomb their pick by selecting. They'll sit on the board for a bit. They might laugh at the person who scoops them up. However, consensus average draft position (ADP) is consensus for a reason. Experts and casuals alike evaluate the certain risk versus reward of a certain player across the industry.

As a baseline, I'm only using players in the first five rounds of ADP. Everyone else is a roll of the dice to some extent anyway.

I'm not using this piece to tell you who to avoid each round in fantasy football. I already did that. Here are five players perceived as a potential roll of the dice that I see as potentially worth the treasure chest at the end of the rainbow.

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues.

Risky Fantasy Football Players for 2025

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 2.7 (RB1)

I don't assume health. It's a lazy way to handicap fantasy football content because injuries can be somewhat predictive.

History is working against Saquon Barkley much more than his situation. Only 12 running backs since 2000 have totaled at least 400 carries between the regular season and playoffs as he did in 2024. None of them were a top-10 running back in fantasy football the following season.

Now, I crossed off Christian McCaffrey last year because of his history with heavy volume. CMC has now broken down twice the year following a campaign with 325-plus touches, but he is no outlier in terms of size or strength at the position.

I tend to lean Barkley is a bit more like Derrick Henry, who hasn't hit this mark yet, in terms of physical ability to handle a massive workload. The Eagles do, too, with just Will Shipley and A.J. Dillon behind Saquon on the depth chart. When healthy, the tailback should be in the same amazing role he had a year ago.

If Barkley slides out of the top five, I'll still consider him in drafts despite the heavy volume, but we've all been warned.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 9.7 (RB4)

You knew he was going to be here.

Christian McCaffrey had 102.6 more fantasy points than the next-closest running back in 2023 as the Niners made the Super Bowl. As mentioned, that took a toll on McCaffrey's body, though. He missed all but four games in 2024 and never managed a true "CMC" workload.

The end result there, 65 total touches, might be a very good thing for one of fantasy's best players ever in 2025. His body had nearly a full year to recover without wear and tear. However, CMC is also now 29 years old with a significant injury history, and another setback in this upcoming season could signal the end is basically here.

As of right now, McCaffrey is going toward the turn in Round 1. If he plays all 17 games, you've almost assuredly picked up the RB1 from that spot. That's an all-time whopper of an "if", though.

The easiest rule I've used in drafts thus far is simply waiting until Round 2 for my McCaffrey exposure. If he's there, great. If not, someone else took the risk, and I don't have to worry with plenty of other elite, younger talents still on the board.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

ADP: 35.7 (WR15)

It's possible Garrett Wilson's talent shines through for a home run of a third-round selection. There are concerns, though.

Wilson's situation is dramatically different despite remaining in the same place. A pocket passer (Aaron Rodgers) gives way to Justin Fields, who has posted three straight seasons with negative expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) as a passer, per Next Gen Stats.

Most are concerned about Fields; I'm not sure enough are concerned about Wilson losing Davante Adams to reduce defensive attention. With the same quarterback, Wilson averaged 1.48 yards per route run (YPRR) and 11.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in the first five weeks of 2024 before Adams' arrival. After, he averaged 1.74 YPRR and 12.1 FPPG.

The wideout had a 31.0% target share before Davante hit the Big Apple. Volume, which is his top selling point in 2025, can't produce upside alone. Defenses will work extremely hard to take him away with just Josh Reynolds and/or Mason Taylor in line to be the second-best option.

In this range of the draft last year, Malik Nabers' talent allowed him to overcome poor QB play and lack of surrounding weapons. Michael Pittman Jr., George Pickens, and D.J. Moore didn't and became frustrating busts. Proceed with caution.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 51.0 (WR22)

There are multiple layers to Rashee Rice's risk, but most drafters probably only see one.

At this point, we don't know about Rice's potential suspension after pleading guilty to two felony charges in a vehicular incident last year. Jordan Addison got three games below the felony level for his situation where no one was harmed. With that, Rice could be looking at a four-to-eight-game suspension at some point this year.

That's common knowledge, which is why he's tumbled to WR22 in ADP. I've got a few more concerns about his on-field role. When Rice dominated for three weeks before a knee injury ended his 2024 campaign, Xavier Worthy hadn't earned a place in the offense. He saw just 13.1% of the looks compared to Rice's 34.5%.

With Patrick Mahomes vowing explosive plays to return and Worthy delivering 15.7 FPPG in the last seven weeks of the year (incl. playoffs), won't Xavier Worthy have a larger role on an offense where Travis Kelce and Marquise Brown also still exist?

Rice's selection could be a half season of a top-12 wideout. He was the WR5 in FPPG (17.6) before going down in Week 4. However, anything worse might be a dud of a selection in a spot where, otherwise, your leaguemates get capable, reliable starters.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

ADP: 53.0 (TE4)

On a year where the Lions are almost certainly going to pull back and be worse as an offense, this ADP suggest significantly better for Sam LaPorta. That's dicey.

LaPorta was the TE9 in FPPG last year (9.0) after a 2023 season where he led the position at 11.5 FPPG as a rookie. The scariest part about LaPorta's drop was that it wasn't due to effectiveness (1.67 YPRR), injury, a coaching change, or additions to the offense. Everything was the same, and he took a step back while Jameson Williams lept forward.

The answer could be as simple as touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s expected fantasy points model, LaPorta posted just 7 touchdowns (on 6.5 expected) last year compared to 10 touchdowns on 6.8 expected in 2023. His target share (17.0%) dropped a bit from two years ago (21.3%), as well.

To select LaPorta, you're sort of hoping he randomly carves out a larger role in the offense again. An injury to another player could help, but the biggest "risk" here is that the down year didn't really produce a major discount on the third-year tight end. He's still the TE4 in ADP.

Considering the talent, that selection could still pay off. However, if he just produces another run-of-the-mill campaign, you've cut your leaguemates in line for no reason when just 2.6 FPPG separated last year's TE5 and TE14.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.