4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 13

We -- justifiably -- have spent the first part of the week fixated on the three-game Thanksgiving slate.

But at least from a spread and total perspective, most of the betting value for me comes over the weekend.

We already discussed my two favorite traditional market bets for the Thursday games, and they're the lone two where I'm willing to pull the trigger. Sunday and Monday are different stories, and I've got a healthy number of spots I like there.

Let's dig into my four favorites in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 13 Spread and Total Bets

Colts at Texans

Total Over 44.5 (-112)

Now that C.J. Stroud is back in the saddle, I want to buy into the Houston Texans. I can't quite do that via the spread as I have this game as the Indianapolis Colts by 4.2 points. I do think they're worth a look at +750 to win the AFC South, given they play the Colts both this week and in Week 18.

But for Week 13, specifically, I can buy into the Texans via the over in this game.

The Texans' offense has been better than perception this year. They actually have above-average metrics in early-down passing and late-down success rate once you adjust for schedule. That's even with Stroud having missed most of the past four games.

I'm also still skeptical of this Colts defense. Getting Charvarius Ward paired with Sauce Gardner helps, but they still let up above-average early-down passing numbers to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. With DeForest Buckner still on IR, this isn't yet a defense I fear.

As for the Colts' offense, they should be able to get theirs even against an elite defense. The o-line is good enough to give Daniel Jones some time, and they have quality depth at pass-catcher.

Combined together, the result is this being my biggest disagreement with the market for Week 13 as my model is well above 44.5. Again, I think the AFC South is a viable consideration for the Texans, but this is the route that requires a bit less of a miracle when buying into an offense I think is figuring things out.

Cardinals at Buccaneers

Total Under 44.5 (-105)

As of Wednesday, I'm projecting both Baker Mayfield and Marvin Harrison Jr. as in for their respective teams. If either were ruled out, my total would come down.

Even with that, I've got this one at just 41.7. With the potential for injury news to further lower it, I like taking the under now.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense is just battered right now. Due to the injuries, they've fallen to 19th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. Getting Bucky Irving back will help, but it might take a couple extra weeks for them to fully realize the gains.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, they're still just 24th offensively despite some uptick with Jacoby Brissett. This, though, will be just the second outdoor game Brissett has started, and wind speeds are modest at a projected 8 mph.

The biggest pushback toward the under could be pace. With Brissett, the Cardinals have gone throw-heavy, something that's likely to continue against a Bucs defense that is stout against the run. For me, that's not quite enough to justify this total being as high as it is, given the uncertainty for key offensive players on both sides.

Broncos at Commanders

Commanders +6.5 (-120)

Even with Jayden Daniels' return still a week away, the Washington Commanders have been good enough with Marcus Mariota for me to take the points on a large spread at home.

Through Week 12, Mariota is a respectable 19th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back out of 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. He has done a good chunk of that without Terry McLaurin, who is expected back at practice this week.

This spread likely sits where it does moreso due to the Commanders' defense than their offense, though, and that's a fair point. They flat-out suck, and it should put the Denver Broncos' offense in a good spot.

Still, Denver is a middling 14th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, and they have to go on the road here. A lot of Bo Nix's most underwhelming performances have come outside of Denver. Thus, it's hard for me to pass up a number this big, given I do think the Commanders will be able to score points here.

Giants at Patriots

Total Over 46.5 (-110)

I get to bet the over on a game involving two fun, young quarterbacks?

Life's good.

This isn't just a funsie bet, either. My model has this total in the 50s, so it's a genuinely good value that just happens to coincide with what's entertaining.

Getting Jaxson Dart back for the New York Giants certainly helps. Dart has been an above-average passer once you account for the schedule he has faced, meaning he should still be effective even if he isn't used as a battering ram anymore.

The New England Patriots should also be able to name their score on offense. The Giants are the 30th-ranked defense by numberFire's metrics. They've been mind-numbingly awful against the run, which is a blessing for a Patriots team that runs more than it should on early downs. Those runs should be less of a drag than usual given the matchup.

Finally, in a week with elevated winds in several spots, this isn't one of them. Current forecasts call for 4 mph winds in Foxboro, so we shouldn't see too much resistance on either side. It's a fun matchup and one where I'm delighted I get to cheer for both quarterbacks.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which NFL bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.