4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 8/30/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals

Rays Over 4.5 Runs (-128)

I know the season is lost for the Washington Nationals, but a little pride wouldn't hurt.

In a sample dating back to June 27th, Jake Irvin has surrendered 45 earned runs in 11 starts. He's arguably MLB's worst non-Colorado Rockies qualifying starter when looking at a 4.92 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 15.2% strikeout rate, and 1.76 HR/9 allowed, which does lead all qualifiers.

In a season that's ebbed and flowed for the Tampa Bay Rays, a .716 OPS against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days ranks 18th in MLB. They've struck out 24.9% of the time, so Irvin's low whiff potential should help.

After the embattled righty departs, the Nats' bullpen has the sixth-highest SIERA in MLB over the past month (4.01) themselves. There's a reason that Tampa is favored for five-plus runs today at MLB's 12th-friendliest hitter's park.

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+340)

When I've got literally the best homer target in the sport, I've got to dig up a bomb, no?

Brandon Lowe can help. As usual, the platoon-oriented slugger has mashed opposite-handed sticks in the past 30 days, recording a .998 ISO, .404 OPS, 48.8% flyball rate, and 46.3% hard-hit rate. He's tied with Junior Caminero for the most homers on the team in these parameters (7).

We want a lefty against Irvin, though. He's coughed up a staggering 2.02 HR/9 to those batters compared to "just" 1.46 HR/9 to righties. Lefties' hard-hit and flyball rates are at least six percentage points higher each against him, too.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.30 median homers from the second baseman today. We'd have set him closer to +285 for a big fly.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Spencer Arrighetti Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-124)

There's one number and one number alone that has Spencer Arrighetti's strikeout prop this high. It's the Los Angeles Angels' MLB-worst 29.8% K rate against righties in the past month.

However, there's a giant problem here. Arrighetti hasn't been effective at all this year.

The right-hander has a 5.17 SIERA and a 17.6% strikeout rate that would rank outside MLB's 25th percentile if it qualified. He hasn't hit six Ks in a start this season at any point, and this line requires seven!

At risk of getting trapped, this line is just simply too high even if Arrighetti reaches a peak outcome today. We've got the Houston Astros hurler projected for just 5.51 Ks in 5.45 innings during today's matchup.

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians

Mariners Moneyline (-136)

The Seattle Mariners are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, so dropping games like yesterday with a George Kirby quality start hurts.

We'll trust Logan Gilbert to follow up with another, though. The Cleveland Guardians have MLB's worst team OPS (.604) and fifth-worst K rate (24.9%) against right-handed pitching in the past 30 days, growing increasingly Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, or bust in the split.

I don't really trust Cleveland's Gavin Williams to keep pace, either. Williams' 4.55 SIERA is much worse than his actual (3.36 ERA) with a concerning level of free passes (12.4 BB%) for a spot where one Cal Raleigh swing could be all she wrote.

There's quite a bit of juice on this line, but Seattle is 12-7 in Gilbert's starts this year. Three of the exceptions were teams that rank top 10 in OPS against his split. He's generally just a great bet in a plus matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.