3 Strikeout Props to Target for Wednesday 6/5/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Wednesday 6/5/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Carlos Rodon was on a hot streak for strikeouts between April 27th to May 19th, averaging 6.6 Ks each start. However, this output has dipped to only seven total strikeouts over Rodon's last two appearances. Will the New York Yankees' left-handed pitcher continue this production or tap back into a solid k total?

The Minnesota Twins are an ideal matchup, for they are tied for the 11th-highest strikeout percentage (K%) in MLB. This has rang true over their last two games with 9.5 Ks per game.

The Yanks' hurler isn't that impressive in any strikeout category. He has a 22.2 K% (bottom 49%), sits in the bottom 38% of chase percentage, and is in the 53rd percentile of whiff rate. If any strength could be circled, it's his ability to make batters swing and miss. The Twins are tied for the 11th-highest swinging-strike percentage, making this a favorable matchup once again.

Rodon's slider has the highest K% among his pitches by a landslide at 42.9%. Minnesota isn't a big threat against this breaking ball with -3.7 runs above average (15th-most).

The biggest worry will likely be the Twins' slugging. They have the 11th-highest hard-hit percentage paired with the 4th-highest isolated power (ISO). Meanwhile, Rodon is in the bottom 23% of hard-hit percentage.

Still, I like his matchup enough to take over 5.5 strikeouts. FanDuel Research's projections also have Rodon right on the edge of six Ks with a total of 5.9 batters fanned.

Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)

I'm making another pick that's in line with FanDuel Research's projections as Jameson Taillon is forecasted for 5.14 strikeouts. He's certainly not a flashy pitcher with a 15.4 K% (bottom 10%), but Taillon has gotten the job done by providing deep starts by getting soft contact.

The Chicago Cubs' starter is in the 76th percentile of barrel percentage, is in the top half of hard-hit percentage, and ranks in the 66th percentile of ground-ball percentage. His formula for success is clear as he's allowed only five homers over eight starts in 2024.

Taillon will take the mound in the Crosstown Classic against the Chicago White Sox, who have scored the fewest runs in baseball by a wide margin (46 fewer runs than the second-fewest). This is right up Taillon's alley as the White Sox have the second-lowest hard-hit percentage.

Going over 17.5 recorded outs (-165) looks like a great bet for Taillon, but can he also have success with strikeouts? His breadwinners are his cutter (21.1 K%) and curveball (17.9 K%). The White Sox are in the bottom half of runs above average against each pitch. They also have the 10th-highest swinging-strike percentage, which could mean even more success for Taillon's curveball, which has his second-highest whiff rate.

Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)

Dylan Cease has the highest projected K total at 7.49, yet his prop is at only 6.5. We've seen his numbers drop a bit over his last three starts with only five strikeouts in two of the appearances. However, the Los Angeles Angels are tied for the 13th-highest K% in baseball.

The San Diego Padres right-handed starter is still elite in most strikeout categories, sitting in the 90th percentile of K% and 92nd percentile of whiff rate. His chase percentage isn't too shabby, either, at 31.0% (74th percentile). L.A. is around the middle of the league for whiff and chase rates.

Cease's pitches are mostly split between his four-seam fastball (42.9%) and slider (42.3%). The Angels have the 9th-most runs above average against sliders and the 11th-fewest when facing fastballs. Cease could be wise to avoid his slider and increase his fastball usage.

This is where Cease's strikeout total could be harmed, though. His fastball has a 21.9 K% compared to a 39.0 K% held by his slider. Additionally, Los Angeles has actually avoided Ks over their last two, totaling only 3.0 strikeouts each game.

The under is touting excellent value at +124. Cease has seen his K numbers dip, and the Angels are doing a great job of avoiding strikeouts and hit very well against Cease's best strikeout pitch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.