3 Strikeout Props to Target for Wednesday 6/12/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Reese Olson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-124)

Reese Olson is coming off a pair of ugly starts, having given up 13 earned runs across his last 9 1/3 innings of work. But he still managed to punch out six and five batters in those two outings, respectively.

In a softer matchup with the Washington Nationals, Olson has a good chance to go over 4.5 strikeouts again tonight.

For the season, Reese Olson has struck out at least five batters in six of 12 starts. Though his 21.0% K rate is down from last year's 24.4% mark, he's upped his swinging-strike rate to 12.1%. That would rank in the top-25 league-wide if he had enough innings to qualify.

With that, Olson has generated double-digit whiffs in nine of 12 outings -- something that should translate to Ks against Washington.

The Nationals sport a middling 21.7% K rate against righties on the year, but they have the eighth highest called-strike-plus-swinging-strike rate (CSW%) since May 1st. It doesn't hurt that they've been starting upwards of six lefties against right-handed pitchers in recent games. Dating back to last season, Olson has a 24.7% K rate against left-handed batters.

With four of the last five starters to face Washington finishing with at least five strikeouts, Reese Olson is well-positioned to go over his 4.5-K prop on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Sonny Gray doesn't have enough innings to qualify for the league leaderboard. But if we look at all pitchers with 60+ innings, he ranks fourth in both K rate (32.8%) and CSW% (31.8%). His 12.5% swinging-strike is a career-high.

So, while Gray's only registered seven strikeouts in five of his 11 starts, he certainly has the stuff to do so in plus matchups. For a right-handed pitcher, there aren't many better matchups than the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Against right-handed pitchers, the Pirates rank 28th in wRC+ and have struck out at the fifth-highest rate (24.8%) in baseball. Whiffs are something they've particularly struggled with of late, with Pittsburgh sporting the second-highest swinging-strike rate (12.8%) and highest CSW% (29.9%) since May 1st.

They have the lowest contact rate (73.4%) in the league over that span, but that hasn't stopped them from swinging at the 12th-highest clip (48.1%).

We saw Miles Mikolas -- someone with a measly 18.4% K rate -- strike out six Pirates across seven innings in last night's series opener. Given Gray's superior whiff numbers, he's in a nice spot to exceed Mikolas and go over 6.5 strikeouts tonight.

It's worth noting that when Sonny Gray's gone over 6.5 Ks, he's done so with authority. He's struck out nine four times and reached double-digit Ks twice. Under his Alt. Strikeouts tab, Gray has +340 odds for 9+ strikeouts and +680 odds for 10+ strikeouts.

Walker Buehler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)

Walker Buehler may be back pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he doesn't look quite back yet. Buehler is just 1-3 through six starts, posting a mediocre 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Though his velocity is actually up from his 200-K 2021 season, the strikeouts and whiffs are nowhere to be seen. Buehler's 7.5% swinging-strike rate has capped his K rate at 21.8%. He's yet to crack double-digit whiffs in a single start and has generated more than five just three times.

We can't really blame his workload, either. The Dodgers have extended him past 90 pitches in two of the last three starts, and he likely would've made that three-for-three had he not been pulled for performance the last time out.

All that's to say -- Walker Buehler has only finished with five or more strikeouts twice in six starts, and he hasn't generated enough whiffs to make me optimistic that'll change going forward.

With the Texas Rangers in town tonight, this is a good spot to hop on Walker Buehler under 4.5 strikeouts. Texas has the sixth-lowest K rate (19.6%) against righties this season, and they have the fifth-lowest swinging-strike rate (10.0%) since May 1st.

The Rangers only struck out five times total in last night's 15-2 loss, giving me confidence they'll limit the Ks again with Buehler on the bump tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.