MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 5/28/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)

The Baltimore Orioles' Grayson Rodriguez has taken his strikeout numbers to the next step in his second season in the big leagues. After ranking in the 61st percentile of strikeout percentage (K%) in 2023, Rodriguez is currently in the 75th percentile of the category and has taken his whiff rate from 26.3% to 29.9% (80th percentile).

The second-year righty has kept up the production, recording seven strikeouts in back-to-back starts. I like Rodriguez's chances of making it three in a row with at least seven Ks as he faces the Boston Red Sox tonight.

Boston is tied for the third-highest K% in baseball, and they've averaged 9.5 strikeouts each contest over the last two -- right on par with their season average of 9.67. As mentioned, Rodriguez touts an impressive whiff rate, and the Sox have the fifth-highest swinging-strike percentage in the MLB.

We've seen Rodriguez's slider usage consistently increase compared to his season average of 16.1%. His usage has finished at 17.8%, 24.4%, and 19.1% over his last three starts. Keep in mind Rodriguez's slider has the best whiff rate among his pitches at 39.4%. Plus, the Red Sox have the sixth-fewest runs above average against the pitch. The increased usage for the slider should continue.

Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Jake Irvin has shown some signs of improvement in the strikeout department; his K% has gone from 18.7% in 2023 (bottom 17%) to 19.0% this season (bottom 30%). The over for his 4.5 total (-120) initially looks enticing with Irvin reaching six strikeouts in two of his previous four.

However, the young hurler has a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves. They don't have a low K% at 23.0% (14th-highest), but their batting order has me questioning if Irvin can make a deep enough start to reach five strikeouts. He's already lacking in this department and cannot afford to miss out on a lot of pitches or surpassing 4.5 Ks could be out of reach.

Irvin is in the bottom 12% of hard-hit percentage while Atlanta has the highest hard-hit percentage in baseball. It doesn't stop there, for the Braves have the seventh-highest slugging percentage (SLG) and isolated power (ISO).

To make matters even worse, Atlanta rakes against one of Irvin's most-used pitches. His curveball accounts for 31.5% of pitches and has the highest whiff rate in Irvin's toolbox. This usage has only increased in recent games at 38.8%, 43.0%, and 41.7%. The Braves average the most runs above average against curveballs.

This looks like a bad matchup across the board for Irvin. He already has a low K% and an early exit could seal the deal for the under.

Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

A 7.5-strikeout total is about as high as it gets, and Freddy Peralta has reached 8 Ks in only 3 of 10 starts this season. However, I believe the matchup is there for the Milwaukee Brewers' pitcher to go over 7.5 strikeouts against the Chicago Cubs.

Let's address the basic numbers first. The Cubs have the 8th-highest K% in baseball while Peralta has a 30.9 K% (89th percentile). Additionally, the Brew Crew's ace is in the 91st percentile of whiff percentage, and Chicago is tied for the 6th-highest K%.

Peralta's pitch usage continues to point to the under. He features a three-headed monster with his four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. The Cubs are in the bottom half of runs above average against all three pitches... that's a recipe for disaster.

What about Peralta's top K% pitches? His slider (34.4%) and changeup (31.8%) have the highest K%, and Chicago has the ninth-lowest runs above average versus sliders. Peralta's fastball also touts an impressive 30.8 K% while the Cubs post the ninth-fewest runs above average against the pitch.

Pretty much anywhere you look, this is screaming a high strikeout total for Peralta. Even Chicago's recent game logs push this agenda, for they are averaging 10.5 Ks over the last two games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.