3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 5/6/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 5/6/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Simeon Woods Richardson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)

When scanning tonight's slate for strikeout props, your eyes may lock in on the other starter in this game, Luis Castillo. But I'm intrigued by this plus-money under for Simeon Woods Richardson in a date with the Seattle Mariners.

A big reason I side with the under for Woods Richardson is his workload. Through three MLB starts in 2024, he's surpassed 81 pitches just once. That doesn't give him too much wiggle room to get to five Ks.

But the biggest reason I'm on the under is that Woods Richardson just isn't a good strikeout pitcher. In three Triple-A starts this year, he tallied exactly four punchouts in each. While he's reached the five-strikeout mark in two of his three MLB starts, Woods Richardson boasts a mere 7.1% swinging-strike rate, so he's likely due for some negative regression in the K department.

While Seattle has a ton of swing-and-miss in their lineup, they also have some pop and could make this a short night for Woods Richardson. They're red-hot right now, too. Over the last seven days, Seattle is fourth in wOBA (.327).

Our projections have Woods Richardson pretty much right at this line, forecasting him to record 4.6 strikeouts. With a +116 number on the under -- compared to -148 odds on the over -- the under is the side I'll be on.

Mitch Keller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Mitch Keller is coming off back-to-back seven-strikeout games in friendly matchups, and he's in another soft matchup today versus the Los Angeles Angels.

The Halos' lineup isn't good right now, and they're striking out plenty, with the fifth-highest K rate over the last 14 days (25.3%).

Keller fanned seven against both the Oakland Athletics and Milwaukee Brewers in his past two starts, and the workload has been solid as he's gone for at least 95 pitches in four of his past five outings.

Our projections lean toward the over as we peg Keller to get 5.8 Ks tonight. This is listed as a pick'em, and given our projection and the matchup, the over looks appealing to me.

Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Yu Darvish should have a tough time getting to six strikeouts tonight versus the Chicago Cubs.

While the Cubbies strike out at an above-average clip, Darvish isn't operating at 100% in terms of workload. Last time out, in his first start off the injured list, Darvish threw only 70 pitches despite going five scoreless -- meaning the San Diego Padres pulled him for solely workload reasons. Darvish might be capped below 90 pitches tonight.

On top of that, Darvish isn't generating many punchouts. He's fanned fewer than five hitters in three straight starts and owns just a 21.0% K rate and 10.0% swinging-strike rate for the year -- numbers that would be career-low marks over a full season.

We project Darvish for 5.1 Ks tonight in his clash with the Cubs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.