NBA

3 Player Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 2 (Mavericks-Celtics)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 Player Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 2 (Mavericks-Celtics)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA Prop Bets

PJ Washington 2+ Made Threes (-135)

Game 1 of the NBA Finals was far more lopsided than the occasion typically calls for. The Boston Celtics pulled away with an 18-point victory against the Dallas Mavericks and, at one point, led by as many as 29 points.

Dallas was outscored from downtown by a whopping 27 points. They'll need to close this gap to make things competitive in Game 2, so let's turn to PJ Washington's made threes prop.

Washington has drilled at least two three-pointers in 13 out of 18 postseason games (72.2% of contests), so I'm pleased with these -135 odds, which imply just a 57.5% probability.

He went 0-for-3 from behind the arc in Game 1 of this series, but I expect his luck and shot volume to change for the better on Sunday.

Boston isn't exactly focused on protecting the three-point line. In the regular season, they surrendered the 8th-most three-point attempts (3PA) per game despite playing at the 12th-slowest pace.

In Game 1, the Mavericks, including Washington, passed up a lot of open looks from downtown in order to target higher shot percentage areas of the court.

Apparently Dallas' scouting report failed to mention that 18 of Boston's 20 total losses this season have come when the opponent outscored them from downtown, proving that it is near necessary to capitalize on outside looks. Last night's beating should emphasize just that for Dallas.

Washington is a great candidate to get going from three-point land. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving receive the lion's share of defensive attention on the perimeter, and the Celtics will let players like Washington shoot threes at will until they prove them otherwise.

He ranks second in 3PA per game, behind only Doncic, and third in minutes per game for Dallas. I'd consider backing PJ Washington 3+ Made Threes (+250), too.

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds (-106)

30 points and 10 rebounds from Luka Doncic weren't enough to get the Mavs within striking distance last night. But regardless of how good Boston's defense has been, Doncic has never been an easy player for them to control, particularly on the boards.

Doncic has grabbed over 9.5 rebounds in 12 out of 18 postseason games (66.7% of contests), yet these -108 odds imply just a 51.9% probability.

As mentioned, he reeled in 10 rebounds in Game 1 despite being pulled from the contest with five minutes remaining.

Since the Celtics shoot a league-high amount of threes but the fourth-fewest FGA from the less than 5-foot range, opposing guards are typically well-suited to grab those long defensive rebounds over bigs. This season, Boston allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing guards.

Doncic is skilled at tracking the ball down and hunts for boards to a much higher degree than the other guards on Dallas. He tallied 18 and 12 rebounds in two regular-season games against Boston, and I'd expect him to average upwards of 10 rebounds in the Finals.

Kristaps Porzingis Over 21.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

Any concerns regarding Kristaps Porzingis' return to play were completely abated by last night's sweltering performance from Boston's big man.

Porzingis put on a total clinic in Game 1, scoring 18 points in the first half. He ended up recording 26.0 combined points and rebounds (PR) despite playing only 21 minutes.

It makes sense that Boston was a bit more conservative with Porzingis in Game 1 given the blowout. Joe Mazzulla has confirmed that Porzingis will not face any minutes restriction in the Finals, so we should expect him to log a normal amount of minutes in any competitive game.

In the regular season, Porzingis averaged 27.3 PR per game. He surpassed 21.5 PR in 31 out of 33 games (93.9% of contests) in which he played at least 30 minutes. He also cleared 21.5 PR in 84.2% of total games (48 out of 57), regardless of how many minutes he logged.

Whichever way you spin, the -113 odds on this prop (53.1% probability) are hard to deny.

The Mavericks have shown amped-up defensive qualities in the playoffs, particularly in the Western Conference Finals. However, recency bias has distracted many from the fact that this is a team that ranked 18th in defensive rating during the regular season.

That rating jumped to 13th in the post-All-Star break timeframe of the season -- right around the time Dallas made a few key moves at the trade deadline -- but we're still giving them too much credit. It's not easy to silence a 7'2" three-level scorer, especially when Porzingis is surrounded by the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Even if Dallas somehow conjures up an answer for Porzingis, I'm way too encouraged by the aforementioned hit rates at this line to fade him.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.